Uttarakhand Disaster - Environment & Science reveal the Truth

Earlier view of Vishnupryag HEP (400MW), View from upstream February 20, 2012 Image Courtesy: http://matuganga.blogspot.in/2013/06/press-note-30-6-2013.html

136, 125, 94… no words can suffice the perennial urge I suffer from trying to squeeze out every moment of ignorant bliss from my jagged existence and more often than not, I look no beyond that 5 feet 5 inch of nature’s enigma enthralling us since the time I barely stood at 4 feet. And even now, as I wrote those numbers in the beginning, something inside me yearned to see them against the name of a certain SRT when he pads up once again (perhaps for the last time) in December later this year in the rainbow nation.

However, rainbows remind me of ‘how’ these numbers are not scores but rankings. India’s 2012 rankings in the UN Human Development Index, The Yale University’s Environmental Performance Index and Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index. Without an iota of doubt, they are the naked reminder as to how we as a nation, had to bow to the fury of the rains that ravaged the Land of the Gods in June this year. With the casualty count over 6000 and many places wiped out of the political map of the country, squeezing out sympathy and politician bashing is an insult to injury while lightening our pockets a bit for the victims ensures that sooner or later, someone might be lightening theirs for us or our next to kith or kin. The simple question is - Why did it happen in the first place and what can we do to be 99% sure it never happens again?

Destroyed Vishnupryag HEP (400MW), View from the downstream 26 June, 2013 Image Courtesy: http://matuganga.blogspot.in/2013/06/press-note-30-6-2013.html

By ‘why did it happen’, I don’t mean the natural causes that culminated in the flash floods but the reasons behind the worst human life destruction in the state’s living memory. K S valdiya, one of the country’s most eminent geological scientists, categorically stated in a leading publication that ‘Flash Floods are entirely man made’. According to him, roads and bridges built in the last decade or so restrict the natural flow of rivers and streams as against old railway bridges. Erecting piers restrict the channel and the embankments on both sides act as dams while the bridges act as open sluice gates.

Naveen Chaudhari of Chandigarh Centre of Advanced Study in Geology explained in the same publication that the Himalayas are among the youngest mountain ranges in the world are still growing. Northern Uttarakhand lies in the Central Crystalline Axis, a geological fault line on the planet consisting of fractured, fissured and sheared metamorphic rock formations where the lower lying harder rock layers are still pushing the upper rock formations against each other as a process of the growth of the mountains. Thus, when dams and tunnels are built alongside rampant unregulated road construction, incessant blasting and heavy machinery being deployed accelerates the process of slop weakening thereby preparing the perfect recipe for massive landslides.

Ravi Chopra, a member of many high powered committees analyzing large hydro projects in the state, termed present day dams being built in the state ‘obsolete’ and repeats what he has to numerous governments and other experts that is, to preserve 50% of a river in its natural state and build smaller dams which can be run-of-the-river type which means negligible or very little water storage. And what does the government(s) do?

A recent study of a Ministry of Environment & Forests report reveals that an expert appraisal committee (EAC) on river valley and hydroelectric projects (RVP), during a period stretching from April 2007 to December 2012, studied a total of 262 hydropower and irrigation projects and did not reject a single project in this period. Now, according to the Environmental Protection Act 1986 and (amended) 1991, Environmental Impact Assessment Reports are to be prepared by an independent group of experts for each project and each project will then be granted environmental clearance after due diligence. How in the world did all the above projects get clearance when the tell tale signs were present long before the major disaster struck?

In 1991, Jhamak village situated right above the tunnel dug for the Maneri Bhali I hydroelectric project on Bhagairathi, suffered more damagethan other villages which were closer to the epicenter of the quake. In 2007, many houses in Chai Gaon, situated close to the blasting sites of the Vishnprayag hydroelectric project, developed cracks and many people had to evacuate. There are similar landslide stories related to when Maneri Bhali II hydroelectric project became operational in 2008 and the under-construction Loharinag Pala hydroelectric project which was later stalled. Now, with all these examples in the same state, the central government still clears 262 projects in a clean sweep but here's the greatest irony. Even when the central government declared 135km of the Ganga as an eco-sensitive zone and banned all construction activity, the state government passed a resolution against it, state Chief Minister led a procession of MPs against the central government demanding a lift on the ban citing it was against the will and future livelihood of the people and eventually, the ban was blatantly ignored.

Herein, in the wake of this tragedy comes the case of India’s 125^th rank in the Yale University’s Environment PerformanceIndex. When it comes to the water related scores and rank, under the both the categoris of Environmental health of Water and Ecosystem Vitality of Water Resources, we are not only ranked 104 and 122 respectively, but the metric that judges the improvement over time for all the variables, we are among the worst performers in almost all the metrics. There are critics, mostly belonging to the project developers, experts and power ministry and other power related regulatory bodies (lobbyists would be an apt term but for the illegality of the term in India) who cite lack of ‘conclusive evidence’ against land use in projects like dams, roads and construction. The storyline seems similar to BCCI’s obdurate refusal to the DRS but herein at stake lay survival of thousands of innocent lives on one side as against massive financial gains and cheap power to the people. This is the critical question: Are we, as a nation, willing to ignore long term disastrous (loss of human life and habitats) impacts that can result with increasing probability due to mindless destruction of fragile and delicate ecological systems like the Himalayas for the sake of ‘faster’ economic growth opportunities?

Destroyed Vishnupryag HEP (400MW), View from the upstream 26 June, 2013  Image Courtesy: http://matuganga.blogspot.in/2013/06/press-note-30-6-2013.html 

Herein, the case of Germany deserves mention. In the 1970s, Germany was an environmental blot on the globe with its huge per capita emissions of sulpher-dioxide and Hydro-flourocarbons (HFCs), its rivers like the Rhine were dirty metallic and toxic waste drains and it had some of the world’s biggest gas guzzling automobiles. Industry lobbyists and labour unions stood ground chanting the age-old job loss rhetoric. It took Chernobyl and a series of minor environmental disasters coupled with some far sighted leadership, a massive green and clean technology movement and the world’s first Green party to transform Germany into the world’s biggest clean technology producer, consumer and exporter.

A little research on the internet can reveal the per capita production and consumption of clean energy in Germany which is the highest in the world and its rank of 13 in the 2012 is only due to slower progress on gas guzzling automobiles. The metric that measures the improvement trend over time for any country in the Yale Index shows Germany as the leader having shown the greatest improvement. And, for cynics, Germany’s total hydropower capacity still remains at the same level as it was in 1990 while both wind and solar have crossed hydro capacity in that land by more than twice and 50% respectively.        

Coming back to Uttarakhand, when it comes to the issue of dams, the issue seems to be complicated by the fact that dams have been scientifically proven to avoid floods, increase power supply and reduce carbon emissions. Logic might suggest so given the fact that there are no emissions during the lifecycle of hydroelectricity production. However, we all forget the impact that deforestation, methane emissions from dam reservoirs. Deforestation, occurring due to clearing the slopes for major projects creates the perfect breeding ground for landslides, results in massive loss of local biodiversity and localized ability of plant life to absorb Greenhouse gas emissions and adds to methane generating decaying plant waste. While the overall green cover of the state has remained almost same in the last 20 years, the quality of afforestation on other land areas to compensate for the deforestation and diverted land use has never made up for the damage caused by localized landslide sites being created due to removal of trees and top soil and the disturbance of the ecological balance of the natural biodiversity existing in a local region.

Secondly, methane emissions from huge dam reservoirs are often the forgotten numbers in calculating the overall ecological and climate impact. A recent study by Ivan Lima and colleagues from Brazil’s National Institute of Space Research (INPE) estimated that the methane emission from India’s dams is at 27.86 % of the methane emission from all the large dams of the world, which is more than the share of any other country of the world with Brazil being the second. A 2007 study suggested that methane from dam reservoirs actually contributes 19% of greenhouse gas emissions of India while contributing 16% of its electricity and even lesser of its total electricity use.

And coming to the third number I mentioned in the beginning, a 94 rank in the world’s most corrupt countries is evident by the fact that the Disaster Management department of the state had never meet since its inception a few years back, a Home Ministry official clearly stated on condition of anonymity that the state government machinery completely failed to do anything as a response to the disaster and there is no credible evidence as to how so many projects have been cleared without any environment clearance reports being publicly available to be studied by independent and international experts.  At the same time, a little less famous among the famed CAG reports (highlighting the biggest scams in India’s history) that came a few years ago lambasted the ill-preparedness of the state for preventing any such major disaster and complete lack of basic infrastructure to deal with the aftermath. There is absolutely no doubt that Uttarakhand has become a major cash cow for the politician-business-bureaucrat nexus to exploit the natural wealth of the state and we, as informed citizens, are equally responsible.

So, while I continue to drown into the world of Himalyan ecology and trying to ascertain when and where will the environmental time bomb explode on our land, I still dream of that elusive utopia that the above ranks be happily traded with SRT's lowest scores in the last few series when he steps for the last time (my heart skips a beat even thinking of the possibility). 

(This is the first part of a series of articles to follow and the answer to 'What can we Do ...' asked in the early paragraphs of this piece and a lot more will be explored in the future parts)

(Thanks to Surbhit for his thought provoking views that made me work on this issue)

400 - Records Keep Tumbling

While there is no doubt that that the very universe can be described in the language of numbers, I’ve always had a love and hate relationship with them all my life. I got 19 out of 100 in one of my school term exams in mathematics in class 12 (not in boards surely) and well, I considered it one of the lows of my life. As usual, I was stuck in one of the vicious cycles of my life. Speaking of cycles and numbers, I should probably stop basking in the glory of my school report card and come to the point. I come across a lot of written and spoken stuff about cycles and numbers in the kind of stuff I read. And one of them that’s hogging the lime light lately is 400.

I can’t remember anything about 400 over which any love was won or lost in my life except that its the highest individual test score in cricket made by a man whom I would rate higher than Tendulkar anyday in my life (best part - he isn’t an Aussie). Of course, when I tried to stir my head in the few moments of sobriety I am lucky to get, the only thing that kept coming to my mind was the film 400. Two of my brothers, (both sane blokes considering their anti-Dhoni rant), have somehow developed an enigmatic affection for that piece of cultural graffiti I somehow find blasphemous of calling a motion picture (barring some scenes which considering the family audience of my blog, cannot explicitly describe here). So, where was I? Yeah, so while I was wondering why in the world did Butler chose just 400 Hollywood extras to fight an enemy comprising of all possible gothic characters ever conceived, my fading eyesight captured a poster on the net saying the film happens to be titled 300. I wonder if the original Spartans were 400 but 100 were mistakenly pushed into the well during the “This is Sparta!” frenzy (no pun intended). Anyways, pardon my mumbo jumbo (hangover hasn’t subsided I guess) for I am supposed to talk about why 400 has become important.

Well, its actually the 43^rd self number in the list of base 10 numbers. Self numbers, also called Devlali numbers, are those integers, in a particular base (base means binary, decimal etc.) which cannot be obtained by any other integer added to the sum of that other integer’s digits (21 is not a self number as another integer 15 when added to the sum of its digits, 15+1+5 = 21). How many of knew by the way that self numbers were first described by the Indian mathematician D R Kaprekar in 1949 and he lived and taught in the town of Devlali in Maharashtra till the end of his life. Its all on Wikipedia so I should better stop copying and come to the point.

Hey all, I must humbly request you to kindly forgive my digressions (I just recalled my latest attempt to be on a high cost me 400). I know its a bad request. Speaking of bad requests, I occasionally encounter them when I try to open certain kind of websites which are best not mentioned. Anyways, how many of you know or remember that the HTTP Status 400: Bad Request code you must have seen on your computer screens. Who knows, considering the rape cases which crossed 400 last year in many major cities in India, tries for certain kind of online ‘education’ that ‘juveniles’ like me are in dire need of, may soon be permanently termed Bad Request in our country. I know I’ll rot in hell because I just realised its already daytime and I have already bored you all to death by writing over 600 words of unadulterated adultery about 400.

Actually, The Mauna Loa Observatory on the island state of Hawaii, USA recently recorded something that has not happened in all of human history. Actually, it hasn’t happened in the last 3 million years. Because for the first time in 3 million years, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere hit 400 parts per million on an average over an entire day just a few days ago. So, what’s the big deal? Well, referring to one of my previous posts titled A BurningApocalypse for Earth?, the earth is well on its way to flush out large parts of humanity within the next hundred years if our love affair with carbon emitting fossil fuels doesn't end soon. By the way, the last time our planet saw such CO2 concentrations, scientists estimate the oceans were just a ‘mere’ 35-65 feet higher. And what most scientists from some of the world’s best research labs and universities are saying is that it could happen again and the signs will become visible in the next few years.

Anyways, if the seas will rise, we (by we, I mean the middle income and upper classes as I doubt  my blog is read by people belonging to lower middle income or the lower income bracket) can always move away from the seas inland and the only people affected will be the poverty stricken living close to sea level. If more and more floods and droughts occur, we can always relax as we mostly live in cities which are rarely directly affected by floods (till now) and if we can afford colas, we can definitely afford packaged water whose rising costs in case of such climatic effects will not affect our household budgets much.

And of course, we don’t care that our food chains will be severely hampered and food prices may rise by more than 30% permanently above the normalised price rise in the next 20 years exacerbating hunger and malnourishment among the already 1 billion plus hungry on the planet. And of course, most of us probably don’t even know that in the Indian subcontinent and in sub Saharan Africa, diseases occurring due to poor water availability and pathetic water quality among the poor is among the top 3 killers. I’ll end my monologue hoping against hope that we can begin shifting to electric cars, energy efficient lighting, ACs and refrigerators and using public transport to the maximum extent possible.  

As I’m wide awake now, I hope to be granted clemency for yet another round of end-of-the-world prophecies to end this piece but I had to harp upon other aspects of 400 because that was the only way I saw to hold some of yours’ attention to read till the end. By the way, for a start, I have got a CNG kit installed in my car for Rs. 24000 as it emits nearly 40% less greenhouse gases compared to a gasoline or diesel car and costs Rs. 2 per km less than diesel and Rs. 3.5 per km less than petrol. Thus, for anyone wanting to drive his car for atleast 10000 km (which more than 99% people do), an electric car is best for city traffic and for long distance travel, CNG should be next in priority list.

(And this time, the inspiration to write something new came from my friend Sakshi)

Eat, Drink, Travel, Work, Sleep – But Efficiently

Image Courtesy of  Sujin Jetkasettakorn / www.freedigitalphotos.net

My previous post took pot shots at another round of failed climate change negotiations, this time in Doha, Qatar against the backdrop of bombarding information on ever increasing effects of climate change augmented by human induced global warming. If the status quo is maintained, there’s no doubt that almost one fifth of the planet’s population would face horrors akin to a war time scenario in the second half of this century mostly in underdeveloped and developing countries.

But, while just as science and technology was behind plaguing the planet, so it can purge it. As I mentioned in my last post, solutions are already there. In labs, in patents, and in thousands of research papers and reports. But rarely did policymakers and corporations bothered to even remember that forget using them. But, being the perennial optimist, I believe change may just be round the corner. While there is no doubt that in the long term, a shift to cleaner energy resources is the only answer. But, while the political will and corporate incentives are still luke warm for clean and green energy, there is a fuel which is in our hands and if used immediately, can give us enough time to set the stage for a large scale global renewable energy invasion to occur. This fuel is energy efficiency.

Energy Efficiency - The Alternative Fuel

Energy efficiency, sounding like a ubiquitous term in high school and freshman basic science text books, is one of the two or three killer apps when it comes to permanently mitigating climate change. A recent report titled World Energy Outlook 2012 by International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that if economically viable energy efficient technologies are applied across the globe from now on (beginning 2013), it will reduce the global primary energy requirement by half by 2035 as compared to a scenario if they are not applied. Oil demand will peak by 2020 and by 2035, it’ll be 13 million barrels per day (mb/d) lower, a reduction equal to total current oil production of Russia and Norway. And how will it affect global warming and carbon emissions?

As I mentioned in my previous post, we can’t afford beyond a 2°C rise in global average temperature for the planet by 2100 in order to avoid disastrous effects of climate change. This report says that existing power plants, factories and buildings etc. will already emit almost 4/5^th of the emissions by 2035 required to raise earth’s average temperature by 2°C. If we continue ‘business as usual’, by 2017, the total number of power plants, factories, buildings etc. would be enough to emit all the carbon based gases which will raise Earth’s temperature by 2°C by 2100. However, if we immediately start applying currently available energy efficiency technologies across the globe, we will push the lock in period to 2022. It simply means that instead of 2017, we will have another 5 years by which time the earth will have enough plants, factories, buildings etc. to raise earth’s temperature by 2°C by 2100. Thus, instead of following ‘business as usual’ path of development (simply meaning the way we are going), if we start applying energy efficiency solutions that are realistically possible according to IEA, we have another 9 years by which time we must get a climate change treaty which curbs carbon emissions and massively increase contribution of renewables and other future clean energy resources in our daily lives.

How Efficient can we be?

Energy Efficiency’s report card till date sports an F grade all the way. From 1974-2008, $38 billion was spent on end use energy and efficiency innovation globally. Against this, $41billion was spent during the same time on nuclear fusion, supposedly the holy grail of infinite clean energy. Against this, just a ‘paltry’ $530 billion were spent on fossil fuel subsidies (now you know why you get diesel at less than Rs. 50/litre even today when the global market prices should make it Rs. 65/litre in India) and $88 billion on renewable energy subsidies in 2011 alone. Regrettably, more than 80% of the energy efficiency potential in buildings and more than 50% in industry remains untapped across the globe.

One of the biggest potentials and markets for future growth lie in energy efficiency improvements in supply chain infrastructure. If the supply chain infrastructure can be improved on three fronts – improving the fuel efficiency of all 3 forms of freight transport, achieving more efficient use of transportation by increasing load factors and reducing average shipping speeds and by using smart traffic management systems, substantial reductions in projected energy demand can be made. A study showed that for a scenario of $100/barrel of oil and for $250/barrel of oil (the second scenario being the most plausible in the decade beginning 2020), for $100/barrel, the above 3 improvements in supply chain infrastructure can result in a 38% reduction in energy in a 10 year time horizon while for $250/barrel, the same 3 can cause a 51% reduction over the same period.

A study by Mckinsey 2 years back stated that across the developing world, if energy efficiency solutions are implemented across all major industries beginning 2011, then by 2020, 25% less energy will be required as compared to the business as usual scenario. This means a total energy savings greater than the total energy consumption in China in 2009. In the 2 biggest carbon emitters on Earth, China and India (1^st and 3^rd ranked in global carbon emissions), application of energy efficiency to its full potential from 2011 onwards could have yielded energy savings of nearly 24% and 33% respectively by 2020 against a business as usual scenario (2 years have already passed and nothing much was done in India).    

For example, for the Indian state of Maharashtra, it has been proven through a study that as compared to the costs incurred on electricity loses due to in efficient water pumps to the states’ farmers providing free electricity (electricity for farming is free in India), the capital cost of installing more efficient pumps would be lower than the cost of generating that extra electricity which got wasted in the inefficient pumps. For a fact, Maharashtra loses sales tax worth Rs. 9 per kWh ($0.20/kWh) for each kWh of electricity not supplied to businesses which gets wasted in the inefficient pumps. Similarly, electricity loses due to technical inefficiency of the electricity grid can be reduced from 27% to 17% andwould result in savings of 69 TWh/yr and CO2 reduction of 55 Mt/yr.

We, the Consumers

But at the end of the day, the end users must not be left out. Its critical that the end consumers must be made aware of the choices that can be made with very little or no hassles and that can result in net savings as well as reduced harm to the environment. Some of the very basic choices that we as consumers in India (choices vary according to geography and culture and lifestyles) can easily make are:

·  Using Light Emitting Diode (LED) lighting for our homes and trashing all CFLs, tubes and incandescent bulbs. While many may feel CFLs is the answer, you must remember CFLs contain mercury which is an extremely toxic substance. And, LEDs cost less than 50% of CFLs and barely 15% of conventional lighting over an entire year. Also, LEDs life span is over 5 times that of CFLs and nearly 35 times that of our regular tubes and bulbs. Reduction in carbon emissions if using LEDs – just 10% of tubes and bulbs and just 45% of CFLs.

·      Use only BEE (Bureau of Energy Efficiency) STAR 5 rated ACs and refrigerators. Although they cost higher than 2 or 3 star rated appliances, over a 5 year period, the net savings due to lower electricity bills can be in excess of 30% as compared to overall costs of 2 star rated appliances.

  

·        As much as possible, use public transport and use bicycles or walk for travelling distances less than a kilometre. For prospective car buyers, an easy internet search can reveal the best reviewed and rated cars by users and experts for highest fuel efficiency. Since cars across the globe are a status symbol, even for those going for higher end cars, there are C & D segment cars available which have higher fuel efficiencies than their counterparts which can easily be found on the net. The most preferable should be LPG (known as CNG in India) based engines especially in Indian metros as their overall costs over a 4 year period is 20-25% less as compared to a diesel car considering an average distance of 12,000 km travelled for a small to mid-sized car.

·     Above all, the CO2 emissions are negligible as compared to diesel or petrol. The 2^nd preference must be a diesel based car if and only if you are willing to drive it atleast 55,000 km considering a 10-12,000 km per year travel. But if you planning to sell your car for anything less than 45,000 km, and mostly travel in cities, petrol will be overall cheaper considering whole life cycle costs since diesel cars, on an average, are Rs.100,000 costlier than petrol ones.  And of course, for the same distance travelled, a same sized diesel car emits lesser CO2 emissions than a petrol one. 

·        Water heaters and electric room heaters are available readily in the Indian market that consume less than 50% energy than the conventional units while providing the same amount of heating which can add another 5% to your saved costs in terms of total spending on energy especially in winters in northern and central India

In essence, energy efficiency might just be the steroids needed for combating global warming and climate change by the time renewable and clean energy coupled with technologies like carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) take over as the lead protagonists.

A Burning Apocalypse for Earth?

Mumbai and Delhi are ranked 7^th and 8^th in British risk consultancy Maplecroft's fifth annual 'Climate Change and Environmental Risk Atlas 2013'. By 2070, according to the study, an estimated 11.4 million people and assets worth $1.3 trillion would be at peril in Mumbai due to climatic extremes. For decades, India’s collective conscious has been, to a great extent, defined by the enduring charm of that mythical utopia called Bollywood. Hundreds of thousands flock to the metropolis squeezed into trains every year hoping to escape struggle and squalor forever. However, a greater and speedier exodus may not be far if the powers that be have their way. And this power is not the state. Numerous studies and experts in recent times have rung alarm bells that unless we act now, Mumbai would be among the earliest scalps of global warming.

On one hand, surging concrete density of the city is causing solar radiation to get absorbed faster especially in last 2 decades causing something called the urban heat island effect (UHI). In this, rising concrete structures and greater green house gas (GHG) emissions is causing city temperatures to rise consistently. Increased temperatures form low-level ozone from volatile organic compounds and nitrous oxides which already exist in the air due to pollutants from factories. The circulation of this warm air with the cooler air from nearby rural areas will cause extreme weather patterns, says Subimal Ghosh, an Associate Professor of Civil Engineering from IIT Bombay. An OECD study in 2010 in which Ghosh contributed predicted more intense Asian summer monsoon causing excessive rainfall and flooding in Mumbai. Also, the mean average temperature of Mumbai would rise by 3.6 degree Celcius, further exacerbating the severe rainfall and flooding effect by 2070. Would anyone who was in Mumbai during the July 25, 2005 rainfall flooding in Mumbai want their children to face a similar and even more harrowing nightmare again?

Fen Montaigne, a climate change expert at Yale University, has warned that the present way of life would make Karachiand Delhi’s temperatures soar beyond limits of human endurance by end of this century. And to all those who think everyone could afford ACs and refrigerators by then, here’s the reality check – it’s the explosion of ACs and refrigeration systems in India, most of which still emit harmful aerosols and GHGs which will be biggest contributor to this unliveable temperature in our cities. But Mumbai would be hit hardest andearliest. As per Stan Cox, scientist and author of Losing Our Cool: Uncomfortable Truths About Our Air-Conditioned World, around 2030 or just after, due to 40% of energy in Mumbai used in air conditioning which emits the above gases, “scary feedback loops” will be created and surging oil, gas and coal use will cause brown sulphurous cloud formation in the Arabian Sea creating unusually large storms. This can surely cause a storm Sandy like situation which killed hundreds in the US recently.

Not just India, hit Google and you’ll be drowned by the amount of credible, peer reviewed research stating that almost all the developing world, where populations beehive in the tropical regions near the coasts, will witness minor ‘Mayan Apocalypses’ within this century. As yet another year approaches and the majority of global population is on a shopping spree for the Holiday season amid cold and snow, a warming planet would be the last thing on their mind. How many of us remember that just recently, another UNFCCC meet was held in Doha, Qatar, which was the 18^th annual edition of the global climate change conference? While the symbolic implications of the fact that Doha is the highest carbon emitter per capita on the planet had environmentalists sneering from across the globe, the event still held hope of squeezing out a clear agreement on charting out a legally binding treaty to curb global carbon emissions. And, we were not disappointed since post the media frenzy and then the anti climax at Copenhagen 3 years ago which yielded ‘voluntary commitments’ (read nothing ), Doha offered another labyrinthine mazeof words and terminologies paving no way on the ground.

The developed countries especially the US maintain their status quo that developing countries must also take binding commitments. Reason? China is now the world’s largest GHG emitter and India is 3^rd. The other 3 are US(2), Russia (4) and Japan (5). While China, India and Russia, being developing nations, are not mandated to cut emissions as per Kyoto Protocol, the only existing legally binding treaty to curb carbon emissions, US never signed the treaty and Japan has refused to sign the treaty’s second phase beginning January 2013. Thus, only 15% of global GHG emissions are covered under the Kyoto Protocol beginning 2013. While the ancient Mayans may have been proven wrong, it just might be that either they got the date wrong or we misinterpreted their ancient texts. How? A few numbers can explain.

All global climate negotiations in the last 15 years are based on the premise that restricting global average temperature rise to 2° Celsius would avoid runaway effects of climate change. We have already raised the average annual temperature of the planet by 0.8° Celsius leaving us with a 1.2 °C window. And what has 0.8 °C done. One third of the Arctic ocean sea ice is gone. Oceans are already 30% more acidic resulting in warm air over them holding more water which can create greater intensity cyclones and storm surges some of which are already flooding and wreaking havoc in coastal cities across the globe. Most importantly, many island nations, who have lived in peace and harmony both with nature and other nations are about to be gobbled up by the sea within decades. Simply put, millions will not have a country to live in by the 2^nd half of this century because their lands will be under water. Numerous experts like MIT’s Kerry Emanuel, former World Bank Chief Biodiversity Advisor Thomas Lovejoy and Nasa scientist James Hansen have categorically stated that the 2 °C limit won’t suffice because of what has mother nature thrown at us for a mercury surge of just 0.8 °C.

Some scary numbers highlighted by data compiled by the Guardian newspaper state that in 2000, the Earth had a total capacity of 886 gigatons of carbon dioxide and equivalent emissions to be put in the atmosphere by 2050 to keep the temperature rise below 2 °C. Now we have already added an estimated 383 gigatons of CO2 in the 12 years from 2001-2012. That leaves us with a credit of just 503 gigatons for the remaining 38 years till2050. Can we do it? Yes we can, atleast technically and physically. Will we do it? I doubt. Why? Because that requires reigning in the sources of biggest emitters on the planet – the oil and gas behemoths.

According to the UK based investment advisory Carbon Tracker, top 5 oil companies by revenue made $137 billion in profits last year, more than twice than Microsoft, Google and Apple put together. Here comes the scary part. While the Earth’s carbon credit is just 500 gigatons to avoid a destructive climate change cycle, the oil and gas giants have 2795 gigatons of fossil fuel reservewhich is shown as $20 trillion in assets in their financial books. And this is not taking into account China’s oil and gas reserves which remain largely unknown. If most of that fossil fuel is not allowed to get burnt, it will mean nearly $20 trillion in asset writedowns for these companies resulting in a sureshot global recession or worse - depression. This will affect large swathes of developed country populations who invest in the capital markets. And since nearly a billion people in developing countries are dependent directly or indirectly on their exports to developed countries, this will mean rampant unemployment and civil unrest in them. Thus, observing from the lens of current economic models, it appears a tough choice between economic hardships for 1/6^th of global population mostly in the middle class OR a near wipe out for around 10% of human race by the end of the century.

However, the solutions to avoid either of the above scenarios lie in the details of how we should change the way we live albeit some tough choices and consequences will have to be endured by certain sections of the global middle and upper classes for some years. A simple example will be shifting subsidies and incentives from oil, gas and coal towards renewables and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) – the most volatile political issue in the developed world. But, the pivot upon which a rescue can still be salvaged depends on execution of an unprecedented political and public will – in essence, the greatest sustained paradigm shift unforeseen in all of history.

(the most feasible solutions to curb emissions, continue growth and save our planet will be followed in my next article).  

(thanks to my friend Anupam for valuable insights into the writing of this piece)  

Technovation Depravity De-mystified

Eureka!! While the Kepler Space telescope gave Nasa and its associate scientists and astronomers yet another chance to utter the most popular word in Greek with the discovery of the first ever solar system closest to ours in terms of its star and the distances of its planets from the same, spare a moment for Neil Armstrong and Sally Ride, the first man to walk on the moon who eventually went to his heavenly abode a month and a half back and the first ever female US astronaut respectively who lost her life to pancreatic cancer around 4 months ago. Ride did more to popularise science among young children and create more and better science teachers than arguably any other NASA alumnus till date. By the way, just a few days before her demise, a moment of pride came for us when Sahyadri, the 3^rd and last of the indigenously developed 1^st generation stealth frigates was commissioned in the Indian Navy (that’s another matter that the stealth frigate project started 15 years ago and Sahyadri alone took 9 years to build). However, I won’t beat about the bush and come to the issue. While for the developed world and our elder brother China (ever heard hindi chini bhai bhai), technology development news stories are like daily morning breakfast, our score barely reaches a dozen when it comes to indigenous technology development.         

Defence technology, without doubt, constitutes the greatest investment in all kinds of technology for any nation worldwide but herein we top the list. Not in technology development but in being the biggest technology beggar (read buyer) in the world. India is the world’s largest arms and weapons importer consisting of all the kinds of weapons and support technology and systems. In the 2012 budget, the government has targeted a total defence spend of $38 billion (up from $35 billion last year) an overwhelming majority of which consists of making up for increased salaries and personnel benefits coupled with arms and weapons procurement from outside. China corresponding defence spend was over $105 billion last year out of which, $6 billion was on defence R&D but this figure, as per numerous defence experts from India and the US, may by higher. To what extent has the People’s Liberation Army (the official name of Chinese military)  has reaped the benefits of higher R&D spend is laid bare by the fact that it recently unveiled the J-20 5th-generation fighter aircraft, an antiship ballistic missile, and the stealthy, catamaran-hulled Houbei-class fast missile boat. At the same time we are at just over $1.5 billion in defence R&D spend. For a more noble comparison, US’s total defence R&D spending last year was $76 billion, twice of India’s total defence spending targeted for financial year 2012-13!!

Moving from defence barracks to civilian turf, we are still languishing in muddy waters. India’s total R&D spend stands close to $40 billion as per a recent report by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. Out of this, apart from the ignominiously low spending done on basic sciences, remaining is mostly divided between the pharmaceutical and automotive sectors in the country. While this is definitely a positive sign, it must not be forgotten that some of these companies are foreign giants who have set up their R&D facilities in India. Again, in the private sector, pharma stands out with nearly $2 billion in R&D spend.

But the flip side is that the above sectors mostly spend on developing consumer based product technology and technology in non-consumer based product sectors such as energy, infrastructure, agriculture and information and communication technologies is almost negligible. One example being that almost all heavy machinery and construction equipment used in the manufacturing plants in India and employed in the massive real estate boom in the country respectively is almost entirely German, Japanese or US made. Try and recall one Indian private company that manufactures power plant and energy related equipment using indigenously developed technology except Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd. (for nuclear, atomic and space R&D, read below). When it comes to soft skills, that’s all we have. Skills. When it comes to developing out own software products be it OS based or internet based, we happily hide behind the veil of our IT industry which is in real terms, an IT services industry and not a product development industry. There is no doubt that many IT, automotive and electrical/electronic firms, mostly foreign, have their running R&D centres in India but herein lies the catch. The output of that research, which means patents filed for that technical innovation, occurs in the homelands of the parent companies. One statistic can highlight this fact. A research study conducted by scholars in IIM Ahmedabad states that the total value of imported R&D from India to the US stood at around $430 million in 2006 while in 2010, it nearly quadrupled to $1.7 billion. In fact, as per Zinnov (2011b), the total market for R&D outsourcing in India stood at $11.8 billion in 2010, the IIM A paper states “although China may have more number of foreign R&D Centres, she exports far less R&D and testing services to the US”  as compared to India.

To put it in perspective, the core purpose of R&D is the socio economic development of a nation. Now, R&D centres of foreign firms, which by the way far outnumber similar setups by Indian companies, provide employment opportunities to Indian researchers and PhDs, the fruits are enjoyed by the developed nations abroad. From software to hardware, from automobiles to electronics, the patents filed outside after using cheap Indian talent are then converted into products and sold across the globe as brands at prices far outweighing the pockets of 80% of the Indian masses (barring pirated software which, being the biggest heartache to the developed world proprietary software industry, is available cheaply in India). Without being jingoistic, parallels can be drawn how the British colonialism destroyed the flourishing cloth dying and cotton weaving industry in many cities of India and at the same time, exported cheap minerals to UK which were then exported back to India and sold at exhorbitant prices to the select elite at that time while the farmers, mine workers and cotton weavers gradually perished in the hundreds of millions.  

But, coming back to the present, this hidden irony behind Indian technological and applied sciences R&D can largely be attributed to a rotten patenting process in the country which simply does not have enough workforce to process patent applications which is a extremely skilful exercise. As per a report presented in the Rajya Sabha in October 2008 by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Commerce, a patent examiner in India handles 214 applications every year. The same number is only 90 in the European Patent Office, 97 in the United States Patent Trade Office and 88 in China. In 2010, China received 391,177 invention patent applications. Since China has a little above 5000 employees in its Patent office, a simple calculation would reveal 78.23 patent applications being processed per examiner. The Chinese office granted 135,110 invention patents in 2010, a little above 27 per examiner. While in India in 2009, our patent office received 36,812 applications and during the period 2008/09, made 16,061 grants. This comes out to 245 applications processed per examiner and just about 107 grants. Any lay man can ascertain the quality and accuracy of the patent processing office and its officials!! The enormity of the discrepancies that might lie in indentifying and rewarding the most important sources of socio-economic development of the country can be eye-popping. The icing on the cake is so colossal that it covers the entire salty cake. Just a small figure of an over 80,000 backlog of patent applications.  

Turning the page to institutional R&D promoted by non – profit organisations and government funded institutions, India lags far behind the dragon and South East Asian economies like South Korea. The biggest organisation in India for conducting original R&D, Centre for Scientific and Industrial research (CSIR), under which 39 national laboratories come, the Achilles heel is the peanuts awarded to these national laboratories when it comes to funding for what is their very objective of existence - R&D. The total allocated budget for CSIR in the financial year 2011-12 was Rs.3300 crore or around $650 million ($1.6 billion in PPP terms). For comparison, Alstom, the US company which manufactures power plant and electrical equipment and supplies to most Indian power utilities spends a little over $1 billion on R&D per year. Also, the R&D budget of National Science Foundation, US’s equivalent of CSIR, was $7.5 billion for the financial year 2011-12, 0.5% of US GDP. For India, CSIR’s budget is just 0.06% of India’s GDP.

However, there are bright spots slowly rising above the horizon. To augment R&D across all sectors of the economy, the weighted deduction on expenditure incurred on in-house R&D has been enhanced from 150 per cent to 200 per cent. Similarly, weighted deduction on payments made to national laboratories, research associations, colleges, universities and other institutions, for scientific research has been enhanced from 125 per cent to 175 per cent. As per the Union Budget 2010-2011, the income from such approved research association is exempt from tax. In 2010, the government  declared to set up a state backed VC fund for R&D in life critical sectors such as pharma with an initial corpus of $2.14 billion to expedite the drug discovery process and enhance the number of new drugs being discovered manifold.

But, such initiatives are pittance when it comes to massive investments in technology needed in core sectors such as energy, agriculture, heavy machinery and material science. This has percolated backwards to the first link of the entire R7D value chain, i.e the education sector at the school level to cuh an extent that the mountain of challenges is only growing higher. As per the results of a recent survey conducted across hundreds of schools in the Metros of India, the number of students wanting to take up commerce at a higher level of education has risen almost three-fold as one moves from classes six to eight to 11 and 12 in the last few years. While astronauts like Sally Ride go on to become educators to spur the next generation of scientists in the developed world, teachers in India are forced due to poor pays and in adequate recognition (owing to the vestiges of the colonial era) to teach in coaching institutes and private tution centres. More than 70% of science and engineering graduates from non IT stream end up being the part of the largest educated private labour force in the world – the Indian IT/ITES space. Hundreds of millions, though continue to live in an India where the fruits of R&D conducted 200 years back like electricity and water supply have never been tasted. 

      

Accepting the Gift of the Mighty 'Ra'

Let us pause for a moment and look at our lives. At ourselves. And I’m not being spiritual or religious here. From a very materialistic point of view, there is no doubt that the way we live our lives is defined by the way we harness energy especially electrical power. The houses we live in are made of concrete, brick and wood made in cement factories and brick kilns using thermal and chemical energy. The food we cook and eat today uses water and fuel which is either wood or gas energy, the clothes we wear are made in mills running on electrical power and the means of transportation we use all run on chemical converted electrical energy. Thus, every aspect of our life today, more than ever in human history, is defined by the way and to the extent that we consume electrical energy.

But, how many of us, in the flow of our daily lives, get time to think the question - where does this power come from? Most of the power that drives our life today globally (more than 75%) comes from burning fossil fuels viz coal and oil. And well, it won’t take more than half an hour of Google search to reveal that not only are these fuel sources the biggest source of global warming and climate change in the last few decades, but also that this fuel will run out in the future. Though, it won’t happen in our lifetimes, but if we do care about our coming generations, we must start to think about changing the way we consume energy so that we can continue with the way we live and the road doesn’t end for many millennia to come. Well, the answer greets us every day but we have been too busy to notice. The sun remains the greatest source of energy on the planet but it is so ironic that despite possessing all the necessary knowledge about how to use solar energy to meet all our energy needs, globally, solar energy doesn’t form even 5% of all our energy consumption. And when it comes to our country India, its a classic case of missing the bus and the train.

India remains one of the top five nations when it comes to overall solar radiation and the intensity of solar radiation incident on our land area. It simply means we have more than enough sunshine round the year in many places which if not wasted, can light up almost the entire country. So, the question is – why haven’t we done it? Firstly, the coal based power industry continues to run on steroids with the financially bleeding electricity boards (yup, the ones that provide us electricity in our homes, factories and offices) continuing to provide cheap electricity to us that is partly subsidised by the governments (off course for vote bank). The remaining losses to the electricity boards happen courtesy massive transmission and distribution losses (almost 35% in India) and theft of electricity due to zillions of illegal connections and faulty meters. Secondly, while the cost of setting up a solar power plant is higher at present, scores of studies have shown these costs can be brought down once economies of scale are achieved and this will directly result in the prices of solar power coming down as well. While currently, the prices at which solar power is being sold by solar power producers to the state distribution companies is around Rs.7-9 per kWh as against Rs. 3-4 for coal based power, it has been estimated that if the government can support the solar power sector for the initial few years in terms of subsidies (instead of giving wasteful subsidies to distribution companies), the cost of solar power could come down to the level of coal within 5 years. Thirdly, the myth that the land areas required for solar power are much more than coal based power continue to plague the sector. A recent study by two professors from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) Bangalore published in the journal Current Science shows that of the total waste and uncultivable land area in India, only 4.1% is required for solar power to meet the country’s entire power needs by 2070. Yes, not just 5-10% needs but the entire power requirement of India can be met by solar if only certain flaws in the system can be set right.

Hence, it all boils down to certain things. All state governments will have to find a way to divert the massive subsidies paid to the financially crippled state electricity distribution companies to the solar producers in terms of higher tariffs in the initial 5-10 years of operation so that in these 5-10 years, economies of scale can be achieved and the costs of power production can come down to the level of coal. Then, it is critical, that massive initiatives are launched and current programmes expedited to bring about private players in transmission and distribution businesses to stop the rampant T&D looses and electricity theft in the country. This singlehandedly can drastically reduce the financial losses of the distribution companies. Finally, central and state governments must make much larger targets (upto 100,000 MW production capacity and above by 2040) and award projects to solar power producers through open transparent auctions.

But, that doesn’t mean that we as individual consumers can get away by lambasting the government and continuing with business as usual. The single greatest fact (PLEASE READ FOLLOWING VERY CAREFULLY) that will come as a shocker to most of us is that as compared to a diesel generator that runs our offices, homes and markets during power cuts, a roof top solar power installation costs 30-35% less over a 10 year usage cycle. In most of the housing societies and commercial buildings today, the costs of power backup for diesel run generators is in excess of Rs.13 per kWh (especially after the recent diesel price hike) whereas for a rooftop solar installation, it is not be more than Rs.9-Rs.10. And we continue to pay more to our society owners and office landlords when a little bit of awareness can result in greater profits for everyone. According to a study, it has been estimated that if only the government can subsidise roof top solar power equipment for the equipment producers (instead of subsidising diesel as is done today) by just 30% of cost of production, then roof top solar can actually replace diesel run generators across industrial, commercial and housing establishments in most parts of India within 15 years.

And I must point out that some critics and even some experts point out that solar energy is only available during the day and during rainy and cloudy skies it becomes useless. If we do a bit of googling, we’ll come to know that battery storage solutions are available which can easily charge invertors and other chargeable electricity solutions that can run during night time and cloudy days. It is only in places where rainfall is extreme where there would be a problem in relying on roof top solar systems during monsoons. In essence, we, as aware members of the society, need to find some time out of our ‘busy’ schedules and push for finding out as to how can we shift towards the more cheap and mush more sustainable path of solar energy driven development which can improve the overall profits and economic efficiency of individuals like us and the nation as a whole. We can’t miss the train this time else the ticket might become too expensive in the future.         

And for the sake of those still racking their brains at the title of this blog post, ‘Ra’ is Egyptian name for the Sun God that was used during the time of the Pharaoh kings who built the pyramids

I owe this article to my dear friend Anupam who inspired me to try and start writing again 

Demographics without a Dividend

There are some common issues highlighted in almost all political, corporate and intellectual discourse in India regarding the economic growth and development of the nation. On one hand, while it is a general consensus that India’s greatest advantage viz-a-viz its peers in the developing countries’ bracket is the world’s highest working age population,  on the other, almost everyone agrees that we need massive investments in education, infrastructure and healthcare to uplift millions out of poverty. However, there is one critical factor at the base of these two issues which, till around 15 years back was prevalent in government policy as well as general educated discourse but has disappeared since then. It is our burgeoning population and the high population growth rate which, if not controlled immediately, can derail the country’s dream of inclusive growth and poverty alleviation forever. There are some concrete reasons behind this argument.   

As per the latest census results, the population of the country in the decade 2001 to 2011 grew by around 18.2% in absolute terms while it grew at around 18.5% in the previous decade. Now, India’s population in 1991 was 85 crore and it was almost 100 crore by 2001. Now, it stands at 120 crore. We have added 20 crore people in the last 10 years while we added 15 crore in the previous ten. In essence, we have added more than the total population of USA in the last twenty years. Here comes the worst part. Among the thirty largest nations in terms of land area, we have the highest area density of population, almost twice that of China’s. Now, for all the proponents of the so called ‘demographic dividend’, the only way a population can feed itself and live a bare minimum life standard as per UN standards is if there is a bread earner in every household. Despite India’s family oriented structure, even if we assume a very rough estimate of 6-7 persons per household, we require atleast a working population of 17-18 crore. Herein lies the reality check.

Agriculture, which already somehow sustains 700 million in the country at life standards way below minimum UN benchmarks, is already suffering from extra labour wherein, beyond a point, a standard hectare of agricultural land cannot employ more than a certain number of labourers. Our agriculture suffers from an economic concept called ‘disguised unemployment’. In simple terms, it means that employing more labour beyond a threshold can only be achieved if you do not employ tractors and other machines to do manual work. But the total productivity of that increased labour would still remain below that what could have been achieved by less labour and more capital investment in technology. Thus, the only option is to transfer this excess labour to manufacturing and construction industries. But that’s where the Pandora’s Box is fully opened.

Construction and manufacturing are capital intensive sectors which can only achieve high employment levels if massive plants are built and huge infrastructure projects are initiated. But such money can only come from foreign direct investment and opening up of the sectors to private investment. And that’s where the twist in the tale arrives. Advancement of technology in the developed world (mostly western nations) has enabled foreign companies to possess latest technology and automated factories wherein manual work is restricted to a certain number beyond which the plant or factory would go for a loss (similar to what happens in agriculture as described above). Thus, while India has slowly opened up its manufacturing and construction sectors to foreign and private investment in the last two decades, the deployment of capital intensive technology by foreign companies has led to all private players within India as well going for the same technology which enhances productivity and lets them compete in the market place. This has limited the total number of workers that can be employed by any manufacturing plant or construction site of a standard size. For example, the total number of direct employees in Tata Motors’ manufacturing facilities in India put together were around 85,000 till the mid 1980s but has reduced to around 45,000 now.

The solution to this issue as promulgated by some experts that there should be more and more number of manufacturing facilities set up in the coming decades so as to absorb the massive youth population brings into the limelight one of the most critical development issues facing India today. We must remember that the one factor that is fixed permanently is the total land area we have. So, increasing number of manufacturing plants, roads, real estate projects and railways is fast gobbling up cultivable land. As per estimates, by 2025, the total per capita agricultural land area in India will be reduced to less than 0.1 hectares while the most alarming figure is that the while per capita agricultural land area remained at around 0.64 hectares in 1950-51 (population then was 360 million), it has nosedived to 0.22 hectare by 2008-09 when the population was 1.2 billion. And, if the population grows at the current rate, we will have 1.5 billion to feed by 2025 as against 1 billion in 2000, with per capita agri land area plummeting to 0.15 hectares. So, as per experts, the only solution lies in increasing the productivity of agriculture around 2.5 times in the next 10 years. Also, if we consider a shift in the dietary patterns of our population especially the middle class from wheat and rice towards vegetables, fruits and non vegetarian diets, it will require greater capital and technology investment by the government to provide incentives to farmers to grow fruits and vegetables and feed for livestock. The sustaining high food inflation rates in the last few years, low levels of agricultural R&D spend coupled with rotten governance in rural areas makes increasing agri-productivity to 2.5 times a task beyond Herculian capacities.

Coming back to employment, the much glorified services sector is already constrained by its very nature to provide employment beyond a certain figure. Despite the fact that growth in the IT/IT services space and the financial sector has provided jobs to around 2.5 million youth in the last ten years, services sector jobs require a certain level of skill set which requires an individual to atleast have diploma level qualifications. There were roughly 400,000 engineers churned out by our engineering colleges last year and this figure increases by about 15% every year. And this is in addition to the 2 million arts, humanities and basic science graduates and diploma holders annually produced by non vocational courses in the country. Thus, number of college graduates every year is almost equal to the numbers which have found employment in organised services sector in the last ten years. Most end up doing part time or temporary jobs in the retail and construction related industries and the few unfortunate ones are absorbed by increasing crime and movements like Naxalism.

The only solution to this colossal challenge is a government policy in collaboration with industry and NGOs/NPOs on three fronts. Firstly, central and state governments led population control and family planning programmes must be initiated which promote the concept of having one child or at maximum two. These programmes must be run in collaboration with banks and NGOs to educate adults and rural youth which incentivises young married couples to rewards and better insurance and housing/auto loan schemes if they have just one or maximum two children. This will especially work wonders in the rural areas.

Secondly, there must be massive public and incentives for private investment in creating capacity based on current technology as in agriculture and food processing industries which have the capacity to create millions of new jobs in rural areas. Its a known fact proven through numerous economic and demographic studies that greater financial security and possibility of jobs for rural youth result in them marrying late and having lesser number of children as the age old concept of children contributing as bread earners for the entire family is done away with. Thus, in other words, not just for poverty alleviation but also for controlling population growth aret, we need another revolution in our agriculture much greater in impact than the Green Revolution (to be discussed in another blog post soon).

Thirdly, there is a pressing need to include chapters and topics on demographics and ill effects of population growth in India in the primary school syllabi especially in local language school boards since there is vast evidence proving that more than 85% of primary school children in Tier 2 cities and below study in state language boards. This will prepare the youth for better family planning in the future. That is also where the effective implementation of the Right to Education Act 2009 comes into the picture. As more and more students are able to attain better quality education with a syllabi in sync with modern realities, that can go a long way in reducing the population growth arte to below 1% in the coming decades.      

However, as we have already produced more than 10 million in each of the last 3 decades, we might face a bleak scenario beyond 2040 that probably very few experts have dwelled upon in recent times. Assuming that the population growth rates go below 1 percent by 2030 and there are more and more single or at max dual child families in the country, it will pose the harrowing new challenge of taking care of the elderly who were born in after 1960. In rural India, it’ll be a huge challenge with one or two young people with not such huge family incomes (since even by 2040, real household incomes in rural India at present rates would not grow beyond 15% at current rates) taking care of 2-4 elders per household, That’s where the need for taking initiatives right now by the Centre in conjunction with the states to launch a huge social security program for the elderly across rural and urban India belonging to Below Poverty Line (BPL) households which can be in terms of cash transfers along with free medical insurance is a must. But despite above issues (which need to tackled through financial and social security penetration), there is no doubt that at present level of technological penetration and decreasing per capita land, population growth rate reduction measures must be the primary aim of our government and Parliament. Else, we might be pushing a large part of India into an abyss where generations might be lost forever.