Blue Dot & Beyond has its first dimension which shares and analyzes how our beloved BLUE DOT earth is increasingly being threatened by man made climate change and how we can create a sustainable future for humanity and our planet. The second dimension of my blog is dedicated to sharing how humanity is exploring solar system & universe both through human spaceflight and deep space observation.
Dear all, below is URL, verbatim text & images of my recently published piece on US media website Modern Notion where I'm a Science Writer. This piece is on how Russia is planning to propose building a new space station with China & India once International Space Station (ISS) retires. http://modernnotion.com/russia-building-orbital-space-station-china-india/
Russia may propose the joint development of a manned
orbital space station in low Earth orbit (LEO) with China
and India in the upcoming BRICS summit in Ufa, Russia, this
coming July. A document released by the Russian Military Industrial
Commission, the apex body controlling all Russian weapons and defense
technology development, has strongly recommended that Russia push for a manned
space collaboration with China and India to forge lasting “technological
alliances.”
The ISS, the 15-nation operation, launched in 1998 is meant
to wrap up in 2020. While NASA has proposed extending the program another
four years, political tensions are once again at a high, making the exact
future of the ISS unclear.
Although Russia spends 30
percent of its defense budget on ISS, it has little
returns; ISS covers only five percent of Russian territory. And since
2007, Russia has leaked bits and pieces of a possible manned orbital station
for when the ISS is retired.
In 2008, the first detailed concept of a new Russian station
revealed that instead of a research lab, like the current ISS, the new station
would function as an assembly point for
missions to the Moon and Mars.
In 2014, Russia signed an agreement with China to work together in
space technology applications, and global speculation was rife with thoughts
that Russia would abandon its space initiatives with the West to
solely work with China on anew orbital
station. But the director
of Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, clarified that
Russia will continue to use the ISS beyond 2020, but that its focus
will shift toward cooperating with China and their space stations.
Experts have long held, however, that since modules of
the Chinese space station, its rockets and even its space suits are
all derived from Russian technology, Russia has little to gain from China in
terms of space technology.
In December 2014, Russian space officials also confirmed that
instead of a separate space station from scratch, current and future Russian
modules of ISS can work as independent orbiting units and can
be assembled to act as the Russian successor to ISS.
While India appears to be the surprise new piece in this puzzle,
Russia’s long term strategic interests and recent developments may have
compelled the move. India has been Russia’s biggest
arms and space technology buyer but was never considered by
Russia for big ticket space projects.
It’s very likely that Western sanctions against Russia over the
Ukraine crisis and Russia’s creaking economy could have precipitated this new
development. Again, ties between India and US are growing in
defense and space technology. China also remains wary of Russia’s
competence following the 2011 aborted launch of the Russian Mars probe
Phobos-Grunt with a Chinese
micro-satellite installed on it.
Global politics can be muddy. Add in the element of space, and
things get even murkier. Looks like we’ll have to wait until the July BRICS
summit to see what direction the emerging space frontier in Asia and
Russia is heading.
Dear All, below is URL and verbatim text & images as copied from Huffington Post's website where I'm a contributing writer. This is my latest article on a very critical public health issue globally & especially for India
Teixobactin--that's the name of the new antibiotic, the first one discovered recently since 1987 and is being touted as the solution to an imminent global healthcare disaster that most of us don't even know about. But teixobactin or similar future discoveries may still not work in India, the biggest hub of the growing menace.
These drugs save millions of vulnerable patients recovering from surgeries and cancer chemotherapy in bacteria rich environments like ICUs and hospital wards.
Scanning Electro Micorgraph image of one of the most dangerous antibiotic (methicillin)-resistant bacteria Staphylococcus aureus; Courtesy: Centers for Disease Control/ Janice Carr/ Deepak Mandhalapu, M.H.S.. Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons
Deaths attributable to antimicrobial resistance every year compared to other major causes of death as per AMR review; Courtesy: Created by Jim O'Neill Chairman of the Review on Antimicrobial Resistance - Licensed under CC BY 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons
But, teixobactin and similar breakthroughs cannot save India from imminent disaster unless steps are taken on war footing to ensure such breakthroughs are implemented effectively. Antibiotic resistance in India has two dimensions--pre-infection and post infection.
The problem is compounded by incessant antibiotics use in poultry and animal husbandry. A June 2014 notification by India's agriculture ministry highlighted how indiscriminate antibiotics use especially in feeding poultry and animals to increase their weights left antibiotic residues in dairy and meat products. Post consumption, these residues can develop antibiotic resistance in humans.
The post infection scenario is no better. Doctors in millions of private clinics and small hospitals prescribe excessive antibiotics owing to all illegal culture of 'gifts' (read commissions) from drug companies. The most ignorant practice is antibiotic prescriptions and over the counter sales for common cold, flu and sore throat, caused overwhelmingly by viruses not bacteria.
While India may not discover a breakthrough antibiotic in near future, it can certainly ensure it doesn't lag behind in adopting from others and effectively using it to save millions.
Orion, the
spacecraft aimed to carry the first humans to Mars one day, ventured beyond the
skies on its maiden flight on December 05, 2014. It was an experimental test
flight launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida, America’s most
used space launch port.
The flight has been termed near perfect as per
National Aeronautics & Space Administration’s (NASA) mission control center once Orion successfully splashed down into the Pacific Ocean near California after
orbiting the earth twice.
Orion taking off from Cape Canaveral on Dec 05 on board the Delta IV Heavy launch Vehicle; Courtesy - Space.com, NASA
This flight
only included the crew module which is meant for housing the astronauts during
deep space voyages to asteroids and Mars. The fully functional Orion will
contain the crew module developed by Lockheed Martin, the service module developed by Airbus and a Launch Abort System (LAS) which will allow astronauts to detach
the crew module from Orion assembly and abort mission in case of a launch failure.
The Orion
made its reentry into earth’s atmosphere at a speed of 20,000 miles per hour
(36,000 km per hour) and had a mass of 21,000 pounds (9530 kg). It slowed down to a speed of 300 miles per hour when the system
of 11 parachutes took over to bring it safely down to 20 miles per hour and
drop it in the Pacific. This first flight was called Exploration Flight Test-1 and cost $370 million.
While it
was not a red letter day in NASA’s history, the event has created some euphoria
among the public for the world’s largest and most advanced space agency which
has been plagued by budget constraints in last 10 years.
Initially,
Orion was a part of the Constellation Program, started by President George W Bush
in 2004 to take Americans back to the moon by 2020 and eventually to Mars.
But
Constellation was cancelled by current President Barack Obama in 2010 on the
recommendation of an expert committee that the program was not financially
feasible under then NASA budgets in the near future since then global recession
and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan had put huge pressure on US government annual
budgets.
Since the
golden age of space exploration in the 1960s and early 70s when US & Soviet
Union locked horns in a fierce space race. Soviet Union took the first humans
into space while NASA took the first humans to moon on a series of Apollo spacecraft
missions. But since then, it has been a downhill slide for NASA.
The last
person walked on the moon in 1972 as the Apollo program was terminated post
that both due to budget constraints and the cancellation of Soviet Union’s fledgling
moon program.
Apollo 17 Scientific Instrument Module bay on the Service Module, seen from the Lunar Module in orbit around the Moon; Courtesy - NASA
Eugene Cernan, the last human to walk on the moon performing the last lunar excursion, December 13, 1972; Courtesy - NASA
Apollo was
replaced by the Space Shuttle, a semi reusable space launch vehicle (aka
rocket) that took humans back only in the low earth orbit (LEO altitude range is 160km to 2000 km above
earth’s surface). The first operational flight mission of the space shuttle
was in 1982 and it was retired in 2011 after 135 missions.
Add caption
The shuttle,
partly similar to a plane, used to lift vertically on attached combinations of
solid and liquid booster rockets and upon reentry and descent into earth’s
atmosphere, used to glide down and land horizontally on a special runway partly
reminiscent of landing a small plane.
The STS-133 mission, Space Shuttle Discovery touches down similar to a small plane at the Shuttle Landing Facility; Courtesy - NASA/Kim Shiflett
The Obama
administration initiated and US Congress passed legislation in 2010 mandating
NASA to create a new deep space launch vehicle called Space Launch System (SLS)
that can carry Americans in Orion beyond LEO and eventually to Mars. The future
travel to and from LEO was targeted through the commercial crew and cargo
development programs (the economics and
financial aspects of US space program and the private sector aiming at Mars will
be dealt with in a future Blog post)
Orion aimed
at carrying 3 humans to moon under the Constellation program. Then, the new NASA
Act passed by US Congress in 2010 salvaged Orion and made some modifications to
enable it to carry 4 humans not just to the ISS but up to Mars using the under
development SLS rocket.
Artist's rendering of Space Launch System (SLS) After Launch-20140827; Courtesy - NASA/MSFC & licensed under Public domain via Wikimedia Commons
Thus, the
December 05 Orion’s maiden flight was launched on the Delta IV Heavy rocket
belonging to the Delta family of expendable (use once & throw) launch rockets
developed by United Launch Alliance, a joint venture between Boeing and
Lockheed Martin. The Delta family has been mostly used to launch US military
and navigation satellites.
Only
rockets carrying telescopes, satellites and landers & robotic probes to
moon, Mars and other destinations in the solar system have ever crossed LEO.
And this is where Orion’s flight is deemed historic.
The primary
objective of this flight was to test Orion’s heat shield upon the craft’s
reentry into the earth’s atmosphere where it is engulfed by a ball of plasma attemperatures in excess of 4000 degree Fahrenheit. The space shuttle experienced
temperatures up to 1500 degree Fahrenheit (º F)only.
NASA
originally targeted a heat shield made of a newly developed composite material
but after a lot of R&D, concluded that Avcoat, the same coating which
protected the Apollo spacecrafts upon reentry over 4 decades ago, is still the best.
Some minor
changes were made in the new shield like 30 percent extra material to fit onto
the larger sized Orion. The coating had not been in manufacturing for decades
and it took NASA 8 months to redevelop it.
The shield
consists of a fiberglass overlay with 320,000 cells which are filled with Avcoat. This fiberglass overlay is built around a titanium skeleton upon which
a carbon fiber skin is fitted. The stand out property of the heat shield is
that a significant percentage (20 percent
in this test flight) of the Avcoat coating burns away in the extreme heat
generated by the plasma ball surrounding the spacecraft during descent through
the atmosphere.
But flights
to moon and Mars will be an entirely different ballgame. An Orion capsule
returning from the moon will hit the Earth’s atmosphere at about 25,000 miles
per hour raising temperatures upto 5,000 º F.
If returning from Mars, it’ll
make reentry at a mind boggling 33,500 miles per hour, highest speed ever for a
man-made object re-entering earth’s atmosphere. The temperature of the plasma
ball will be a scorching 5,500 º F.
In this, SLS is supposed to lasso an asteroid via a robotic spacecraft and put it in orbit around moon and then the first humans aim to land on the asteroid to conduct experiments and collect samples. The asteroid mission is aimed to be the final test bed for humanity’s odyssey to
Mars.
The second
major objective of Orion’s flight was to test the system of 11 parachutes which
were deployed like a choreographed ballet sequence beginning at an altitude of
20,000 feet (around 3.8 miles or 6.1 km)
when the capsule had slowed down to a speed of 300 miles per hour.
Orion Crew Module descending through the last 3.8 miles (6.1 km) after the system of parachutes were deployed in a unique sequence; Courtesy - NASA
Apart from
the above major objectives, Orion crew capsule had 1200 sensors fitted on it to
record flight data on critical variables like temperature, pressure, speed and
radiation. The next few years will involve data analysis of values of all the variables
recorded by the sensors to prepare detailed knowledge about flight conditions
and make necessary changes for next test flight scheduled for 2018.
On the
technological front, cosmic and solar radiation remains the biggest obstacle.
The amount of radiation that astronauts’ bodies are estimated to absorb on a
trip to Mars with the same shielding that was used on the Apollo moon missions
will prove to be lethal. Thus a radiation shielding of an entirely new
structure and size is required.
One of the
most oft discussed radiation shielding solutions is water. But Orion will need
a water shield atleast 1 meter thick for the least time consuming trajectory to
and from Mars. That largely reduces the amount of payload that can be carried to
Mars which would include astronauts’ belongings, food and all landing and
habitat equipment to live on Mars. Most research into other radiation shielding
materials has not reached beyond lab testing.
Then there
is the issue of the astronauts spending the longest ever time in micro gravity conditions
experienced by any human. Micro gravity makes the muscles and bones to atrophy and
there’s no experiment conducted or data available as yet that can simulate the
micro gravity conditions for both the onward and return journeys.
Thus this
is one small step for humanity especially NASA and it’ll take hundreds of such
steps before we make the next giant leap to Mars.
Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) took another step
towards becoming a global force to reckon with in the space sector with the
successful launch of its second navigation satellites, the IRNSS 1B, in orbit
around earth on Friday, April 04. The satellite was launched from the Satish
Dhawan Space Centre at Sriharikota (SDSC SHAR) using India’s workhorse launch vehicle,
the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV). The satellite is part of the Indian
Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) programme, which involves
launching of seven navigation satellites by mid 2015.
IRNSS 1-B satellite in the clean room at ISRO's Satish Dhawan Space Centre, Sri Harikota;
Image Courtesy: ISRO
Navigation satellites, known to the general public as GPS
satellites, after the official name of the system of twenty four US navigation
satellites, provide positioning and tracking services for users in a plethora
of fields. The IRNSS 1B was initially placed in an intermediate orbit by the
PSLV version code named PSLV C-24 from where, 5 orbit raising maneuvers will be
performed over next few days to place it in the intended geosynchronous
circular orbit (a geosynchronous orbit is one in which a satellite takes 24
hours to revolve around the earth) at a height of 36,000 km.
An ISRO press release stated “After a flight of about 19 minutes, IRNSS-1B Satellite,
weighing 1432 kg, was injected to an elliptical orbit of 283 km X 20,630 km,
which is very close to the intended orbit. After injection, the solar panels of
IRNSS-1B were deployed automatically. ISRO's Master Control Facility (at
Hassan, Karnataka) assumed the control of the satellite.”
PSLV C24 rocket takes off from spaceport at Sri Harikota with the IRNSS-1B navigation satellite; Image Courtesy: ISRO
The IRNSS system will be a critical national asset
delivering terrestrial, marine and aerial navigation services including disaster
management, mapping services, vehicle tracking and visual voice navigation
apart from future strategic applications like in guided missile defense systems
and other military purposes.
India already became the fifth nation after the GPS system
of US, Russian GLONASS, China’s Beidou and EU’s Galileo to launch an
indigenously developed navigation satellite as part of a navigation system when
it launched the first in the series, the IRNSS 1A, in July 2013. IRNSS’s
primary service area will stretch upto 1500 km beyond the nation’s borders. The
design and technology involved has scope for enhancing the coverage area by
adding four satellites beyond the seven but ISRO has stated that this would be
considered only if future need arises.
IRNSS-1A, India's first 'GPS' satellite, integrated with PSLV C22 rocket at Satish Dhawan Space Centre, Sri Harikota before launch in July 2013; Image Courtesy: ISRO
The genesis of IRNSS programme occurred ten years ago with
the aim of creating a system entirely in control of the Indian government to
provide accurate real time positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) services
for both civilian and military purposes. It was approved by the Indian government
in June 2006 and the project has an estimated cost of Rs.1420 crore with each
satellite costing around Rs.125 crore and the ground based infrastructure
valued at Rs.300 crore.
A navigation satellite emits microwave signals periodically
which contain the exact time when a signal leaves the satellite. Any receiver
on the ground, like in a mobile phone, picks up the signal and then based on
the time difference between the transmission and reception of the signal,
measures the distance of the satellite from the receiver. Thus, as in case of
GPS, a receiver gets signals from four satellites and is thereby able to
calculate its own precise location.
Thus one critical element in satellite navigation is time
measurement upto the smallest possible fraction of a second. Each IRNSS
satellite contains 3 rubidium atomic clocks, which keep time upto a few tenths
of a trillionth of a second in an hour. Currently, ISRO is importing these
clocks but work is on to develop these clocks within the country. Since the accuracy
of these clocks gets affected by vibrations, electrical interference and if
their temperature goes 1 degree Celsius either way beyond their optimum
operating temperature, ISRO designed the satellites accordingly from scratch.
With regards to ground based control and management, the
ISRO release added “A
number of ground stations responsible for the generation and transmission of
navigation parameters, satellite control, satellite ranging and monitoring,
etc., have been established in as many as 15 locations across the country”.
The
IRNSS is estimated to provide position accuracy within 10 metres on the Indian landmass
and position accuracy within 20 metres in the ocean and area within 1500 km of
the borders. The position accuracy of US GPS receivers is about 15 metres for
civilian purposes. However, civilian use of IRNSS will require separate
receivers which the standard GPS receivers cannot meet. ISRO ‘s Space
Applications Centre at Ahmedabad is already in advanced stages of development
for appropriate IRNSS receivers.
The third and fourth satellites are slated to be launched by the end of
this year while the remaining three are targeted for launch in March 2015. The
IRNSS 1B launch was the twenty fifth consecutive successful launch of PSLV. The
PSLV configuration that was used for this mission is the ‘XL’ version which had
been used in the past to launch 5 missions, including India’s maiden moon
(Chandrayaan 1) and Mars (Mangalyaan) missions.
Posterity, perhaps, will judge the first 2 decades of the 21st
century for either one of 2 reasons. It will either reaffirm the unwritten
unsaid faith of a vast majority of realists and almost every pessimist that this
is yet another decade when the disparities between the haves and have-nots will
widen further and the Earth, for most of its inhabitants, would become an even
tougher place to survive. Courtesy an ever increasing income chasm between the
rich and the poor especially in the developing world coupled with an ever increasing
mercury of the planet, these 20 years might just prove to the pivotal point for
humanity towards an apocalyptic world we got glimpses of in the recent Matt Daemon flick
Elysium.
However, the second reason might just come true if only the pivot, or
in fact the pivots, are placed at the right location and the right time. And one
such pivot might be how the 2 most populous nations on Earth are sowing the first
seeds of the largest industry in the future of human civilization. For, China
& India’s recent small steps to take their own giant leaps into capturing
the final frontier might just prove to be the critical links towards humankind’s
march to becoming a multi-planetary species (and perhaps interstellar species?)
Video Link: Mars Orbiter Mission Launch; Courtesy: Euronews & DD News
While India’s Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM) raged first ever
truly public debates in independent India’s history over a science and
technology project, China, in its own diplomatically pompous manner, launched
its first ever moon rover mission, the Chang’e 3 on December 2, 2013. Since expression
of dissent against any state policy/project is a mild synonym for treason in
China, there was an almost unanimous applause within the People’s Republic for
crossing another cosmic milestone and, as has been the norm in the last decade,
the applause was echoed around the world. But India’s MOM, while largely
receiving positive views among the scientific community across the globe, has
been lambasted in many significant media outlets and by prominent intellectuals
from various fields both within and outside the country. But the real Pandora’s
Box here is the myopic viewpoint.
Video Link: China's Chang'e 3 Lunar Lander Launch on Long March 3B Rocket; Courtesy: CCTV America
Before questioning the motive, relevance or
usefulness of such a mission for a nation consisting of the world’s largest
number of poor, we must first define the context under which such questions are
raised. And this is where many, both for and against India’s MOM, miss the
point. First of all, the context here is that the current level of
scientific and technological knowledge coupled with economic potential has enabled
both India and China to take bigger and bolder steps in space exploration and
space science since the turn of the century. Secondly, there is a massive and indisputable
body of evidence in favor of offshoots and derivations from space
technology having found applications in day to day life for masses across
the globe (refer to my blog post last year dated July 06, 2012 - “The Indian LSD Deficiency Syndrome").
Products from everyday cellphone communication and
water filters to services like TV broadcasting, weather monitoring and remote
sensing are all possible due to direct application or indirect spin offs of technologies developed for space missions. But, then, a very relevant and obvious question
is – Why are we not focused on only launching better and diverse satellites
which directly aim at improving the lives of the poor in India instead of
wasting Rs.460 crore (US$73 million in terms of average dollar to rupee exchange
rate in last 6 months) gazing at Martian red dust?
That’s where most miss the critical pieces in this jigsaw
puzzle. Those pieces are categorically 2 in number. First one is the mastering of
certain critical technologies that will go a long way in launching heavier
payloads, both diverse satellites as well as future complex scientific payloads. ISRO’s
launch vehicle which carried Mangalyaan, the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), positions
payloads upto 1900kg either in the Sun Synchronous Orbit (SSO) or the Low Earth
Orbit (LEO) (these orbits are used by
earth observation and weather satellites) raised the bar many notches with MOM.
PSLV has, for the first time, mastered
a much longer 4 stage ignition lasting 43 minutes than the
usual nearly 18 minutes to put a remote sensing satellite in orbit (roughly
put, every
launch vehicle has multiple stages in terms of fuel containing boosters
in each stage which are fired at the right time, right position and
right orientation
of a spacecraft to place it in the right orbit or to raise the orbit) to
place Mangalyaan in the appropriate orbit around Earth from where the spacecraft's own engine took over.
From there, Mangalyaan’s own propulsion
system, were fired in 6 maneuvers to provide it the requisite velocity to leave Earth’s Sphere
of Influence (SOI) (sphere of influence is
roughly a huge sphere around earth in which Earth’s gravity is more than that
of the sun. There are similar SOIs for every planet and moons) and follow a
trajectory towards Mars. This process of igniting the 440 Newton engine of the spacecraft
to make it leave Earth orbit and slowly move out of Earth’s SOI is called TransMars Injection (TMI) and India is only the 5th nation apart from US,
Russia, EU and Japan to have achieved that.
The second and perhaps the standout technological achievement
for ISRO will be the 3 levels of autonomy provided to Mangalyaan once they work
effectively throughout the duration of the mission. When Mangalyaan is at Mars,
any signal will take a little above 20 minutes to travel from Earth to
Mangalyaan and vice-versa. Thus there’s a 42 minute delay in a command from
earth to reach back Mangalyaan after Mangalyaan sends any signal about any
glitch or change required in maneuvering the craft when it is near Mars or in
Mars orbit. Thus the 3 level autonomy has ensured that all necessary mission
tasks at various stages be completed by Mangalyaan itself once it is at substantially
huge distances from Earth without needing commands from Earth especially when
the craft is close to Mars or in Mars orbit.
Now, achieving the above technological capabilities in carrying
out complex navigation in deep space, orbital raising/lowering maneuvers and
system autonomy achieved by PSLV during MOM will be critical assets for India
to be a major player in the emerging global space industry which is the 2nd
piece in the jigsaw puzzle justifying the credibility of MOM and similar deep
space missions for India. And herein lies the real motive behind this mission. In 2012, the global space economy size was $304 billion, a growth of 5% while the global satellite industry grew 7% clocking $190
billion in sales. Satellite launch industry revenues, which reflect revenues
through launches made in an year, grew 35% year-on-year (yoy) from 2011 to 2012
with US revenues alone reaching $2.2 billion from $1.4 billion. Within the
space industry, satellite manufacturing revenues, again portraying in-year
satellites launched, rose 23% to $14.6 billion.
Since
ISRO, has already made over 100 launches since
its inception around 50 years ago, this is like missing out on the Great
California
Gold Rush despite being very close to the gold mines. ISRO has over 400
registered companies providing components and small parts to be used in
various
space based and ground level systems used in various missions and ground
settlements of the agency. However, successive governments are still
stuck in
the socialist era mindset of restraining to unleash the commercial
potential
lying idle under the ‘pious’ aim of working for nation building and
providing
better life standards to the common people. As usual, our policymakers
forget
that huge productive assets have been created which can add massive
value both
in terms of India's own communication, earth observation
and weather monitoring satellites and also providing massive services to
other countries in areas like satellite launch/manufacturing and other
space based services.
Until now, ISRO’s major workhorse, the Geo Synchronous
Launch vehicle (GSLV) has developed its first variant, the GSLV Mk1 (a), (b) &
(c) with Mk 1(a) & (b) having maximum load carrying capacities of 1500 kg and1900 kg respectively to Geosynchronous Orbit (this is the orbit in which
communication satellites are placed). The first ever successful flight of GSLV took
place in 2001 and it has had some success with 2 successful launches, one
partial success and 2 failures. The second variant, GSLV Mk2, able to carry upto
2500 kg took 10 years to develop till 2010 for its first test flight but hasn’t
had a successful commercial flight yet. The 3rd and latest variant
GSLV Mk3, targeted to carry in excess of 4000-5000 kg is in development stages
as of now. But, the GSLV Mk1 & Mk2 cannot place heavier communication
satellites generally used across the globe. However that’s not the case with
PSLV.
GSLV MkIII mock-up; Courtesy: ISRO
As per a Euroconsult report in 2009, a Paris based research
& analyst firm, over 76% of all communication satellites (not other
categories of satellites) to be launched in the period 2012-2018 weigh over
3500 kg which means India still doesn’t possess the proven launch capability to
cater to that market but can target the remaining 24% with its GSLV Mk 1
variants. But, as per Euroconsult, there would have been 951 satellites (earth,
weather observation, navigation etc.) in the sub-1900kg category to be
launched in the period 2009-2018 as per declared private and government programs.
All these can be carried by PSLV which has already had 23 successful launches
till date in the sub-1900 kg category.
To what extent have we lost because of
our government & policymakers’ innate desire to rarely look beyond the 2-3
year election cycles (since major states’ elections happen almost every 2
years) can be gauged from the fact that average satellite costs for this decade
(2010-2019) is estimated at $99 million with average launch price at $51
million. 5 years have passed in that 10 year time period. So, around half of
that market might be already captured by now and remaining would soon be gone.
And that's
where the issues of relevance and usefulness which I mentioned in the
early part of this article gain ground. But until we take
those small steps, we’ll never get to take the giant leap. But to wait
to bask
in the glory of an elusive utopian state where the state will first
provide toilets, drinking water and power to every head in the soon to
be most
populous nation on earth and then to think about investing in new age
science
and technology is nothing but a self defeatist ideology.
We have had atomic energy, space technology, mobile phones,
internet and biotechnology which have served the entire population in bettering
their lives some way or the other but we still haven’t provided toilets,
drinking water and power to 40% of population. Simply because there is no accountability
in the system to ensure where the allotted money for every field is going and
not because $73 million has been robbed off from a ‘forever poor’ Indian’s would
be toilets and packed in bags to orbit around Mars.
(2nd article in my series on Himalayan & Uttarakhand's environmental destruction after my previous post on August 04, 2013)
Environmental
Costs Equal Lives of Poor
The recent disaster in
Uttarakhand where more than 6000 people lost their lives has been portrayed as
a ‘natural disaster’ by the state and central governments and by some sections
of media but, in reality, its nature’s first major counter strike against our
country’s incessant mindless destruction of the most diverse yet one of the most
fragile ecosystems on the planet in the name of development.
In the wake of the current
disaster, it is critical not just for real sustainable development of the
mountain states of India but more so for the very survival of the people living
in the Himalayas to avoid any plausible similar disaster from happening in the
future but also highlight and continuously reduce the long term environmental
costs that are, both literally and metaphorically, never borne by the
perpetrators who enjoy the so called ‘fruits’ of development in the Himalayas.
One simple example out of many
which proves my point – In Lodhama region of Darjeeling district of West
Bengal, the state government partnered with some MNC to develop a Mini-Hydel
power project under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). CDM is an emissions
trading scheme under Kyoto Protocol in which, if a project is emitting less
pollutants than a baseline value (as calculated from emissions of other similar
projects), then the emissions that were not emitted are given as credits to
that company which has invested in the project. These credits can then be
traded in the carbon trading markets.
So, while this Darjeeling based
project made money for its owner company through power generated, they also
earned carbon credits for some other MNC which has the go ahead for continuing
to pollute (as has been the case with numerous CDM projects which on the ground
never make actual emission reductions), the locals who have the first right on
the natural wealth have got no share of the electricity generated from the
project. At the same time, water diverted from the stream has crippled crops
grown nearby and biodiversity of the stream (ruining small fishermen). Imagine
the impact on the locals with the poorest earning just Rs.8/day.
The
Neglected Science
(most of the environmental science issues explained in this section is the summary of an enlightening discussion I had with India's preeminent geologist Prof. K.S. Valdiya some time back)
The landmass of the present day
Indian subcontinent is pushing against mainland Asian landmass consisting
especially of the Tibetan Plateau at a rate of 5cm/year. Thus, the Himalayas,
on average, are rising by 5mm/year. Active fault lines as deep as 20 miles at
places exist wherein rock layers push with intense force against each other. Thus,
unregulated blasting and tunneling activity through the rocks for diverting
river courses is severely disturbing the surface layers of soil consisting of
trees and other vegetation which are unstable and have settled on the slopes
only in last some decades. Thus, the first major rainfall is a perfect recipe
for landslides. That is exactly what happened during the once in a generation
cloudburst that occurred during 15-17 June 2013. And, the mushrooming of dam
projects including operating, under construction and proposed ones in Indian
Himalaya is the most lethal combination.
Because of the active geological
fault lines, explosive activity has been a catalyst for increased seismic
activity resulting in greater probability of earthquakes. Already there are
numerous examples (sometimes hidden by the local administration) wherein, walls
of houses and hotels have collapsed and cracks have occurred in many more
structures in villages and towns nearest to the blasting and mining sites even
due to minor tremors. We must remember that Uttarakhand and much of Himachal
Pradesh lie in either Seismic Zone 4 or the worst, Seismic Zone 5 meaning
highest probability of large earthquakes.
Millions of tonnes of rubble generated
due to massive excavation both for tunneling and road construction is
indiscriminately dumped in the river beds (since developers save on costs of
removing and transporting the millions of tonnes of rubble to safe dumping
grounds, mother nature bears the costs). Thus, the volume of the river bed is
severely reduced on the side of the dumping. Hence, during rainy season, the
river charts out a new course with huge force and starts cutting the opposite
slope from the base moving upwards thereby triggering land slide tendencies on
both the slopes. Now, since rampant unregulated construction (homes, hotels and
restaurants) happened all along the river banks totally neglecting dangerous
flood marks, thousands of such constructions were washed away during the June
floods.
Many agricultural and local flora
based livelihood lands were lost due to flood waters crossing all previous
highest flood levels during the Uttarakhand tragedy. Similarly, the rubble and
the diversion of rivers due to tunnels have massively reduced the irrigation
capacity of many downstream agricultural areas that were fed for millennia by
the rivers’ natural flow. This has nearly destroyed local fisheries and aquatic
life based industries apart from affecting the freshwater resources of
communities at various altitudes all along the river basin.
Dam and real estate construction was
and is being done on slopes where the top soil layers are already loose due to
deforestation and thus, are easy to excavate making construction less expensive
as against tougher and socially isolated rocky terrains. Thereby, explosive
activity and digging coupled with deforestation all act as perfect catalysts
for landslides. Secondly, another long term damaging effect of deforestation
and tunneling is that the rainwater seeps in through the barren slopes and eroded
soil in these tunnels. Consequently, natural water resources like numerous
springs which have served the local village population for centuries have dried
up in the last 15-20 years coinciding with massive dam construction and
deforestation. Villages in many Himalayan districts have been facing a severe
water crisis in the last 15 years or so.
The perpetration of this slow
destruction isn’t restricted to land and water. Dams are a major source of
Methane gas which is a bigger heat trapping greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.
A recent study by an international research institution categorically stated
that India’s current dam density is the highest source of global warming as
compared to all other countries in the world. However, the biggest alarm bells
have been rung by a very famous research study published early in 2013 which stated
that India’s predicted dam density in terms of dams per kilometer of river
length after the proposed dams are built will be 62 times the world average.
This will submerge 170,000 hectare of forests and affect nearly 90% of
Himalayan valleys and 27% of those dams will affect dense forests with unique
biodiversity.
The Establishment’s
Tawdry Muck
On the governance front, there
has been a complete lack of a Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA) of dam and
hydroelectric projects and the existing system of Environmental Impact
Assessment under the Environment Act is carried out by voluntarily appointed
environment auditors which lack credibility and there is negligible or zero
local community involvement anywhere both in terms of getting clean chit from
the locals and providing them alternate means of livelihood and homes.
However, the road to stopping this
rampant plundering of our greatest natural wealth seems ready to be broken even
before it’s built. As per the Supreme Court directive issued in August this
year, the Ministry of Environment & Forests (MoEF) was to form an expert committee
to investigate and come out with a report on the cumulative impact of all
existing as well as proposed hydel projects in Uttarakhand. The committee was formed
last month and no guesses, it consists of numerous government officials and 2
senior members of the former Expert Appraisal Committee (see my previous blog post
dated August 04, 2013) of the MoEF, the same ‘clique’ that cleared more than
250 hydel projects across Himalayas since April 2007 and did not stop a single
one for any environmental flaw or disregard. And this committee which has been
directed by MoEF to come out with its report within 3 months, to cover more
than 30 projects and asses each one of them separately, this committee sure
will do an ‘expert’ job with no conflict of interest!!
The Panacea
& Potential for Green Growth
In the short to medium term, the
first step that must be taken should be the consolidation of existing
settlements governed through land-use planning rather than unplanned growth of
new ones. Secondly, flow paths for river beds and flood plains must be clearly
demarcated and regulation zones put in place to protect them. For example, the
entire watershed of the Bhagirathi river for the 135km stretch between Gaumukh
and Uttarkashi must be declared as an eco-sensitive zone as per the EPA, 1986.
The draft River Regulation Zone (RRZ) notification, that controls hotels and
townships constructed along the river, lying in some dusty drawer in the MoEF,
must be immediately notified.
India suffers from 35%
transmission and distribution losses which can be reduced to the global average
of less than 20% if only a little political will can be applied and civil
society needs to highlight this on every possible forum and platform. Secondly,
there are numerous examples of villages and communities not just across the
globe but in India as well where small and micro hydel projects provide
electricity to the nearby villages and communities ensuring economic development
and negligible environmental impact.
Then, the concepts of green
development or ecopreneurship applied to the Himalayan states must be
implemented. This includes mainly 2 areas - creating sustainable employment
opportunities in the areas of watershed development, horticulture and
floriculture based industries AND valuation of ecosystem services like the carbon
absorption capacity and water retention capacity of forests which is a huge
long term cost not accounted for when such forest areas are removed.
Solar and wind power have massive potential not
just in plains and coastal areas but also in the sunny sides and windy slopes
of Himalayas which is a natural resource for us that has never even been
studied or experimented with. Thus, there are scientific solutions available
which can be applied both in the Himalayas as well as in the plains and other
geographic areas to drastically reduce the impact of current destructive model
and almost change it completely in the long term.