Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Mars Orbiter Mission - One of many seeds that'll grow to serve Humankind

Posterity, perhaps, will judge the first 2 decades of the 21st century for either one of 2 reasons. It will either reaffirm the unwritten unsaid faith of a vast majority of realists and almost every pessimist that this is yet another decade when the disparities between the haves and have-nots will widen further and the Earth, for most of its inhabitants, would become an even tougher place to survive. Courtesy an ever increasing income chasm between the rich and the poor especially in the developing world coupled with an ever increasing mercury of the planet, these 20 years might just prove to the pivotal point for humanity towards an apocalyptic world we got glimpses of in the recent Matt Daemon flick Elysium.

However, the second reason might just come true if only the pivot, or in fact the pivots, are placed at the right location and the right time. And one such pivot might be how the 2 most populous nations on Earth are sowing the first seeds of the largest industry in the future of human civilization. For, China & India’s recent small steps to take their own giant leaps into capturing the final frontier might just prove to be the critical links towards humankind’s march to becoming a multi-planetary species (and perhaps interstellar species?)

Video Link: Mars Orbiter Mission Launch; Courtesy: Euronews & DD News

While India’s Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM) raged first ever truly public debates in independent India’s history over a science and technology project, China, in its own diplomatically pompous manner, launched its first ever moon rover mission, the Chang’e 3 on December 2, 2013. Since expression of dissent against any state policy/project is a mild synonym for treason in China, there was an almost unanimous applause within the People’s Republic for crossing another cosmic milestone and, as has been the norm in the last decade, the applause was echoed around the world. But India’s MOM, while largely receiving positive views among the scientific community across the globe, has been lambasted in many significant media outlets and by prominent intellectuals from various fields both within and outside the country. But the real Pandora’s Box here is the myopic viewpoint.
Video Link: China's Chang'e 3 Lunar Lander Launch on Long March 3B Rocket; Courtesy: CCTV America

Before questioning the motive, relevance or usefulness of such a mission for a nation consisting of the world’s largest number of poor, we must first define the context under which such questions are raised. And this is where many, both for and against India’s MOM, miss the point. First of all, the context here is that the current level of scientific and technological knowledge coupled with economic potential has enabled both India and China to take bigger and bolder steps in space exploration and space science since the turn of the century. Secondly, there is a massive and indisputable body of evidence in favor of offshoots and derivations from space technology having found applications in day to day life for masses across the globe (refer to my blog post last year dated July 06, 2012 - “The Indian LSD Deficiency Syndrome").

Products from everyday cellphone communication and water filters to services like TV broadcasting, weather monitoring and remote sensing are all possible due to direct application or indirect spin offs of technologies developed for space missions. But, then, a very relevant and obvious question is – Why are we not focused on only launching better and diverse satellites which directly aim at improving the lives of the poor in India instead of wasting Rs.460 crore (US$73 million in terms of average dollar to rupee exchange rate in last 6 months) gazing at Martian red dust?

That’s where most miss the critical pieces in this jigsaw puzzle. Those pieces are categorically 2 in number. First one is the mastering of certain critical technologies that will go a long way in launching heavier payloads, both diverse satellites as well as future complex scientific payloads. ISRO’s launch vehicle which carried Mangalyaan, the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), positions payloads upto 1900kg either in the Sun Synchronous Orbit (SSO) or the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) (these orbits are used by earth observation and weather satellites) raised the bar many notches with MOM.

PSLV has, for the first time, mastered a much longer 4 stage ignition lasting 43 minutes than the usual nearly 18 minutes to put a remote sensing satellite in orbit (roughly put, every launch vehicle has multiple stages in terms of fuel containing boosters in each stage which are fired at the right time, right position and right orientation of a spacecraft to place it in the right orbit or to raise the orbit) to place Mangalyaan in the appropriate orbit around Earth from where the spacecraft's own engine took over.

From there, Mangalyaan’s own propulsion system, were fired in 6 maneuvers to provide it the requisite velocity to leave Earth’s Sphere of Influence (SOI) (sphere of influence is roughly a huge sphere around earth in which Earth’s gravity is more than that of the sun. There are similar SOIs for every planet and moons) and follow a trajectory towards Mars. This process of igniting the 440 Newton engine of the spacecraft to make it leave Earth orbit and slowly move out of Earth’s SOI is called TransMars Injection (TMI) and India is only the 5th nation apart from US, Russia, EU and Japan to have achieved that.


The second and perhaps the standout technological achievement for ISRO will be the 3 levels of autonomy provided to Mangalyaan once they work effectively throughout the duration of the mission. When Mangalyaan is at Mars, any signal will take a little above 20 minutes to travel from Earth to Mangalyaan and vice-versa. Thus there’s a 42 minute delay in a command from earth to reach back Mangalyaan after Mangalyaan sends any signal about any glitch or change required in maneuvering the craft when it is near Mars or in Mars orbit. Thus the 3 level autonomy has ensured that all necessary mission tasks at various stages be completed by Mangalyaan itself once it is at substantially huge distances from Earth without needing commands from Earth especially when the craft is close to Mars or in Mars orbit.
   
Now, achieving the above technological capabilities in carrying out complex navigation in deep space, orbital raising/lowering maneuvers and system autonomy achieved by PSLV during MOM will be critical assets for India to be a major player in the emerging global space industry which is the 2nd piece in the jigsaw puzzle justifying the credibility of MOM and similar deep space missions for India. And herein lies the real motive behind this mission. In 2012, the global space economy size was $304 billion, a growth of 5% while the global satellite industry grew 7% clocking $190 billion in sales. Satellite launch industry revenues, which reflect revenues through launches made in an year, grew 35% year-on-year (yoy) from 2011 to 2012 with US revenues alone reaching $2.2 billion from $1.4 billion. Within the space industry, satellite manufacturing revenues, again portraying in-year satellites launched, rose 23% to $14.6 billion.

Since ISRO, has already made over 100 launches since its inception around 50 years ago, this is like missing out on the Great California Gold Rush despite being very close to the gold mines. ISRO has over 400 registered companies providing components and small parts to be used in various space based and ground level systems used in various missions and ground settlements of the agency. However, successive governments are still stuck in the socialist era mindset of restraining to unleash the commercial potential lying idle under the ‘pious’ aim of working for nation building and providing better life standards to the common people. As usual, our policymakers forget that huge productive assets have been created which can add massive value both in terms of India's own communication, earth observation and weather monitoring satellites and also providing massive services to other countries in areas like satellite launch/manufacturing and other space based services.

Until now, ISRO’s major workhorse, the Geo Synchronous Launch vehicle (GSLV) has developed its first variant, the GSLV Mk1 (a), (b) & (c) with Mk 1(a) & (b) having maximum load carrying capacities of 1500 kg and1900 kg respectively to Geosynchronous Orbit (this is the orbit in which communication satellites are placed). The first ever successful flight of GSLV took place in 2001 and it has had some success with 2 successful launches, one partial success and 2 failures. The second variant, GSLV Mk2, able to carry upto 2500 kg took 10 years to develop till 2010 for its first test flight but hasn’t had a successful commercial flight yet. The 3rd and latest variant GSLV Mk3, targeted to carry in excess of 4000-5000 kg is in development stages as of now. But, the GSLV Mk1 & Mk2 cannot place heavier communication satellites generally used across the globe. However that’s not the case with PSLV.

GSLV MkIII mock-up; Courtesy: ISRO

As per a Euroconsult report in 2009, a Paris based research & analyst firm, over 76% of all communication satellites (not other categories of satellites) to be launched in the period 2012-2018 weigh over 3500 kg which means India still doesn’t possess the proven launch capability to cater to that market but can target the remaining 24% with its GSLV Mk 1 variants. But, as per Euroconsult, there would have been 951 satellites (earth, weather observation, navigation etc.) in the sub-1900kg category to be launched in the period 2009-2018 as per declared private and government programs. All these can be carried by PSLV which has already had 23 successful launches till date in the sub-1900 kg category.

To what extent have we lost because of our government & policymakers’ innate desire to rarely look beyond the 2-3 year election cycles (since major states’ elections happen almost every 2 years) can be gauged from the fact that average satellite costs for this decade (2010-2019) is estimated at $99 million with average launch price at $51 million. 5 years have passed in that 10 year time period. So, around half of that market might be already captured by now and remaining would soon be gone. 

I will dedicate an entirely separate blog post to the total commercial opportunity available in global space industry in future and how India and China fit into the picture and to what extent India has lost its way to the space goldmines despite being so close in last few years. But, as far as MOM is concerned, just like innumerable spinoff space technologies became ubiquitous in our daily lives, in what unfathomable ways will deep space navigation and system autonomy capabilities going to find applications in various fields where the masses will benefit remain undiscovered.

And that's where the issues of relevance and usefulness which I mentioned in the early part of this article gain ground. But until we take those small steps, we’ll never get to take the giant leap. But to wait to bask in the glory of an elusive utopian state where the state will first provide toilets, drinking water and power to every head in the soon to be most populous nation on earth and then to think about investing in new age science and technology is nothing but a self defeatist ideology.

We have had atomic energy, space technology, mobile phones, internet and biotechnology which have served the entire population in bettering their lives some way or the other but we still haven’t provided toilets, drinking water and power to 40% of population. Simply because there is no accountability in the system to ensure where the allotted money for every field is going and not because $73 million has been robbed off from a ‘forever poor’ Indian’s would be toilets and packed in bags to orbit around Mars.  

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Uttarakhand & Himalayan Destruction - Environmental Science has the Answers

(2nd article in my series on Himalayan & Uttarakhand's environmental destruction after my previous post on August 04, 2013) 

Environmental Costs Equal Lives of Poor

The recent disaster in Uttarakhand where more than 6000 people lost their lives has been portrayed as a ‘natural disaster’ by the state and central governments and by some sections of media but, in reality, its nature’s first major counter strike against our country’s incessant mindless destruction of the most diverse yet one of the most fragile ecosystems on the planet in the name of development.

In the wake of the current disaster, it is critical not just for real sustainable development of the mountain states of India but more so for the very survival of the people living in the Himalayas to avoid any plausible similar disaster from happening in the future but also highlight and continuously reduce the long term environmental costs that are, both literally and metaphorically, never borne by the perpetrators who enjoy the so called ‘fruits’ of development in the Himalayas.

One simple example out of many which proves my point – In Lodhama region of Darjeeling district of West Bengal, the state government partnered with some MNC to develop a Mini-Hydel power project under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). CDM is an emissions trading scheme under Kyoto Protocol in which, if a project is emitting less pollutants than a baseline value (as calculated from emissions of other similar projects), then the emissions that were not emitted are given as credits to that company which has invested in the project. These credits can then be traded in the carbon trading markets.

So, while this Darjeeling based project made money for its owner company through power generated, they also earned carbon credits for some other MNC which has the go ahead for continuing to pollute (as has been the case with numerous CDM projects which on the ground never make actual emission reductions), the locals who have the first right on the natural wealth have got no share of the electricity generated from the project. At the same time, water diverted from the stream has crippled crops grown nearby and biodiversity of the stream (ruining small fishermen). Imagine the impact on the locals with the poorest earning just Rs.8/day.


The Neglected Science

(most of the environmental science issues explained in this section is the summary of an enlightening discussion I had with India's preeminent geologist Prof. K.S. Valdiya some time back)

The landmass of the present day Indian subcontinent is pushing against mainland Asian landmass consisting especially of the Tibetan Plateau at a rate of 5cm/year. Thus, the Himalayas, on average, are rising by 5mm/year. Active fault lines as deep as 20 miles at places exist wherein rock layers push with intense force against each other. Thus, unregulated blasting and tunneling activity through the rocks for diverting river courses is severely disturbing the surface layers of soil consisting of trees and other vegetation which are unstable and have settled on the slopes only in last some decades. Thus, the first major rainfall is a perfect recipe for landslides. That is exactly what happened during the once in a generation cloudburst that occurred during 15-17 June 2013. And, the mushrooming of dam projects including operating, under construction and proposed ones in Indian Himalaya is the most lethal combination. 

Because of the active geological fault lines, explosive activity has been a catalyst for increased seismic activity resulting in greater probability of earthquakes. Already there are numerous examples (sometimes hidden by the local administration) wherein, walls of houses and hotels have collapsed and cracks have occurred in many more structures in villages and towns nearest to the blasting and mining sites even due to minor tremors. We must remember that Uttarakhand and much of Himachal Pradesh lie in either Seismic Zone 4 or the worst, Seismic Zone 5 meaning highest probability of large earthquakes.

Millions of tonnes of rubble generated due to massive excavation both for tunneling and road construction is indiscriminately dumped in the river beds (since developers save on costs of removing and transporting the millions of tonnes of rubble to safe dumping grounds, mother nature bears the costs). Thus, the volume of the river bed is severely reduced on the side of the dumping. Hence, during rainy season, the river charts out a new course with huge force and starts cutting the opposite slope from the base moving upwards thereby triggering land slide tendencies on both the slopes. Now, since rampant unregulated construction (homes, hotels and restaurants) happened all along the river banks totally neglecting dangerous flood marks, thousands of such constructions were washed away during the June floods.

Many agricultural and local flora based livelihood lands were lost due to flood waters crossing all previous highest flood levels during the Uttarakhand tragedy. Similarly, the rubble and the diversion of rivers due to tunnels have massively reduced the irrigation capacity of many downstream agricultural areas that were fed for millennia by the rivers’ natural flow. This has nearly destroyed local fisheries and aquatic life based industries apart from affecting the freshwater resources of communities at various altitudes all along the river basin.

Dam and real estate construction was and is being done on slopes where the top soil layers are already loose due to deforestation and thus, are easy to excavate making construction less expensive as against tougher and socially isolated rocky terrains. Thereby, explosive activity and digging coupled with deforestation all act as perfect catalysts for landslides. Secondly, another long term damaging effect of deforestation and tunneling is that the rainwater seeps in through the barren slopes and eroded soil in these tunnels. Consequently, natural water resources like numerous springs which have served the local village population for centuries have dried up in the last 15-20 years coinciding with massive dam construction and deforestation. Villages in many Himalayan districts have been facing a severe water crisis in the last 15 years or so.

The perpetration of this slow destruction isn’t restricted to land and water. Dams are a major source of Methane gas which is a bigger heat trapping greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. A recent study by an international research institution categorically stated that India’s current dam density is the highest source of global warming as compared to all other countries in the world. However, the biggest alarm bells have been rung by a very famous research study published early in 2013 which stated that India’s predicted dam density in terms of dams per kilometer of river length after the proposed dams are built will be 62 times the world average. This will submerge 170,000 hectare of forests and affect nearly 90% of Himalayan valleys and 27% of those dams will affect dense forests with unique biodiversity.


The Establishment’s Tawdry Muck

On the governance front, there has been a complete lack of a Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA) of dam and hydroelectric projects and the existing system of Environmental Impact Assessment under the Environment Act is carried out by voluntarily appointed environment auditors which lack credibility and there is negligible or zero local community involvement anywhere both in terms of getting clean chit from the locals and providing them alternate means of livelihood and homes.

However, the road to stopping this rampant plundering of our greatest natural wealth seems ready to be broken even before it’s built. As per the Supreme Court directive issued in August this year, the Ministry of Environment & Forests (MoEF) was to form an expert committee to investigate and come out with a report on the cumulative impact of all existing as well as proposed hydel projects in Uttarakhand. The committee was formed last month and no guesses, it consists of numerous government officials and 2 senior members of the former Expert Appraisal Committee (see my previous blog post dated August 04, 2013) of the MoEF, the same ‘clique’ that cleared more than 250 hydel projects across Himalayas since April 2007 and did not stop a single one for any environmental flaw or disregard. And this committee which has been directed by MoEF to come out with its report within 3 months, to cover more than 30 projects and asses each one of them separately, this committee sure will do an ‘expert’ job with no conflict of interest!!


The Panacea & Potential for Green Growth

In the short to medium term, the first step that must be taken should be the consolidation of existing settlements governed through land-use planning rather than unplanned growth of new ones. Secondly, flow paths for river beds and flood plains must be clearly demarcated and regulation zones put in place to protect them. For example, the entire watershed of the Bhagirathi river for the 135km stretch between Gaumukh and Uttarkashi must be declared as an eco-sensitive zone as per the EPA, 1986. The draft River Regulation Zone (RRZ) notification, that controls hotels and townships constructed along the river, lying in some dusty drawer in the MoEF, must be immediately notified.

India suffers from 35% transmission and distribution losses which can be reduced to the global average of less than 20% if only a little political will can be applied and civil society needs to highlight this on every possible forum and platform. Secondly, there are numerous examples of villages and communities not just across the globe but in India as well where small and micro hydel projects provide electricity to the nearby villages and communities ensuring economic development and negligible environmental impact.

Then, the concepts of green development or ecopreneurship applied to the Himalayan states must be implemented. This includes mainly 2 areas - creating sustainable employment opportunities in the areas of watershed development, horticulture and floriculture based industries AND valuation of ecosystem services like the carbon absorption capacity and water retention capacity of forests which is a huge long term cost not accounted for when such forest areas are removed.  

Solar and wind power have massive potential not just in plains and coastal areas but also in the sunny sides and windy slopes of Himalayas which is a natural resource for us that has never even been studied or experimented with. Thus, there are scientific solutions available which can be applied both in the Himalayas as well as in the plains and other geographic areas to drastically reduce the impact of current destructive model and almost change it completely in the long term.

Sunday, August 4, 2013

Uttarakhand Disaster - Environment & Science reveal the Truth

Earlier view of Vishnupryag HEP (400MW), View from upstream February 20, 2012 Image Courtesy: http://matuganga.blogspot.in/2013/06/press-note-30-6-2013.html

136, 125, 94… no words can suffice the perennial urge I suffer from trying to squeeze out every moment of ignorant bliss from my jagged existence and more often than not, I look no beyond that 5 feet 5 inch of nature’s enigma enthralling us since the time I barely stood at 4 feet. And even now, as I wrote those numbers in the beginning, something inside me yearned to see them against the name of a certain SRT when he pads up once again (perhaps for the last time) in December later this year in the rainbow nation.

However, rainbows remind me of ‘how’ these numbers are not scores but rankings. India’s 2012 rankings in the UN Human Development Index, The Yale University’s Environmental Performance Index and Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index. Without an iota of doubt, they are the naked reminder as to how we as a nation, had to bow to the fury of the rains that ravaged the Land of the Gods in June this year. With the casualty count over 6000 and many places wiped out of the political map of the country, squeezing out sympathy and politician bashing is an insult to injury while lightening our pockets a bit for the victims ensures that sooner or later, someone might be lightening theirs for us or our next to kith or kin. The simple question is - Why did it happen in the first place and what can we do to be 99% sure it never happens again?

Destroyed Vishnupryag HEP (400MW), View from the downstream 26 June, 2013 Image Courtesy: http://matuganga.blogspot.in/2013/06/press-note-30-6-2013.html

By ‘why did it happen’, I don’t mean the natural causes that culminated in the flash floods but the reasons behind the worst human life destruction in the state’s living memory. K S valdiya, one of the country’s most eminent geological scientists, categorically stated in a leading publication that ‘Flash Floods are entirely man made’. According to him, roads and bridges built in the last decade or so restrict the natural flow of rivers and streams as against old railway bridges. Erecting piers restrict the channel and the embankments on both sides act as dams while the bridges act as open sluice gates.

Naveen Chaudhari of Chandigarh Centre of Advanced Study in Geology explained in the same publication that the Himalayas are among the youngest mountain ranges in the world are still growing. Northern Uttarakhand lies in the Central Crystalline Axis, a geological fault line on the planet consisting of fractured, fissured and sheared metamorphic rock formations where the lower lying harder rock layers are still pushing the upper rock formations against each other as a process of the growth of the mountains. Thus, when dams and tunnels are built alongside rampant unregulated road construction, incessant blasting and heavy machinery being deployed accelerates the process of slop weakening thereby preparing the perfect recipe for massive landslides.

Ravi Chopra, a member of many high powered committees analyzing large hydro projects in the state, termed present day dams being built in the state ‘obsolete’ and repeats what he has to numerous governments and other experts that is, to preserve 50% of a river in its natural state and build smaller dams which can be run-of-the-river type which means negligible or very little water storage. And what does the government(s) do?

A recent study of a Ministry of Environment & Forests report reveals that an expert appraisal committee (EAC) on river valley and hydroelectric projects (RVP), during a period stretching from April 2007 to December 2012, studied a total of 262 hydropower and irrigation projects and did not reject a single project in this period. Now, according to the Environmental Protection Act 1986 and (amended) 1991, Environmental Impact Assessment Reports are to be prepared by an independent group of experts for each project and each project will then be granted environmental clearance after due diligence. How in the world did all the above projects get clearance when the tell tale signs were present long before the major disaster struck?

In 1991, Jhamak village situated right above the tunnel dug for the Maneri Bhali I hydroelectric project on Bhagairathi, suffered more damagethan other villages which were closer to the epicenter of the quake. In 2007, many houses in Chai Gaon, situated close to the blasting sites of the Vishnprayag hydroelectric project, developed cracks and many people had to evacuate. There are similar landslide stories related to when Maneri Bhali II hydroelectric project became operational in 2008 and the under-construction Loharinag Pala hydroelectric project which was later stalled. Now, with all these examples in the same state, the central government still clears 262 projects in a clean sweep but here's the greatest irony. Even when the central government declared 135km of the Ganga as an eco-sensitive zone and banned all construction activity, the state government passed a resolution against it, state Chief Minister led a procession of MPs against the central government demanding a lift on the ban citing it was against the will and future livelihood of the people and eventually, the ban was blatantly ignored.

Herein, in the wake of this tragedy comes the case of India’s 125th rank in the Yale University’s Environment PerformanceIndex. When it comes to the water related scores and rank, under the both the categoris of Environmental health of Water and Ecosystem Vitality of Water Resources, we are not only ranked 104 and 122 respectively, but the metric that judges the improvement over time for all the variables, we are among the worst performers in almost all the metrics. There are critics, mostly belonging to the project developers, experts and power ministry and other power related regulatory bodies (lobbyists would be an apt term but for the illegality of the term in India) who cite lack of ‘conclusive evidence’ against land use in projects like dams, roads and construction. The storyline seems similar to BCCI’s obdurate refusal to the DRS but herein at stake lay survival of thousands of innocent lives on one side as against massive financial gains and cheap power to the people. This is the critical question: Are we, as a nation, willing to ignore long term disastrous (loss of human life and habitats) impacts that can result with increasing probability due to mindless destruction of fragile and delicate ecological systems like the Himalayas for the sake of ‘faster’ economic growth opportunities?

Destroyed Vishnupryag HEP (400MW), View from the upstream 26 June, 2013  Image Courtesy: http://matuganga.blogspot.in/2013/06/press-note-30-6-2013.html 

Herein, the case of Germany deserves mention. In the 1970s, Germany was an environmental blot on the globe with its huge per capita emissions of sulpher-dioxide and Hydro-flourocarbons (HFCs), its rivers like the Rhine were dirty metallic and toxic waste drains and it had some of the world’s biggest gas guzzling automobiles. Industry lobbyists and labour unions stood ground chanting the age-old job loss rhetoric. It took Chernobyl and a series of minor environmental disasters coupled with some far sighted leadership, a massive green and clean technology movement and the world’s first Green party to transform Germany into the world’s biggest clean technology producer, consumer and exporter.

A little research on the internet can reveal the per capita production and consumption of clean energy in Germany which is the highest in the world and its rank of 13 in the 2012 is only due to slower progress on gas guzzling automobiles. The metric that measures the improvement trend over time for any country in the Yale Index shows Germany as the leader having shown the greatest improvement. And, for cynics, Germany’s total hydropower capacity still remains at the same level as it was in 1990 while both wind and solar have crossed hydro capacity in that land by more than twice and 50% respectively.        

Coming back to Uttarakhand, when it comes to the issue of dams, the issue seems to be complicated by the fact that dams have been scientifically proven to avoid floods, increase power supply and reduce carbon emissions. Logic might suggest so given the fact that there are no emissions during the lifecycle of hydroelectricity production. However, we all forget the impact that deforestation, methane emissions from dam reservoirs. Deforestation, occurring due to clearing the slopes for major projects creates the perfect breeding ground for landslides, results in massive loss of local biodiversity and localized ability of plant life to absorb Greenhouse gas emissions and adds to methane generating decaying plant waste. While the overall green cover of the state has remained almost same in the last 20 years, the quality of afforestation on other land areas to compensate for the deforestation and diverted land use has never made up for the damage caused by localized landslide sites being created due to removal of trees and top soil and the disturbance of the ecological balance of the natural biodiversity existing in a local region.

Secondly, methane emissions from huge dam reservoirs are often the forgotten numbers in calculating the overall ecological and climate impact. A recent study by Ivan Lima and colleagues from Brazil’s National Institute of Space Research (INPE) estimated that the methane emission from India’s dams is at 27.86 % of the methane emission from all the large dams of the world, which is more than the share of any other country of the world with Brazil being the second. A 2007 study suggested that methane from dam reservoirs actually contributes 19% of greenhouse gas emissions of India while contributing 16% of its electricity and even lesser of its total electricity use.

And coming to the third number I mentioned in the beginning, a 94 rank in the world’s most corrupt countries is evident by the fact that the Disaster Management department of the state had never meet since its inception a few years back, a Home Ministry official clearly stated on condition of anonymity that the state government machinery completely failed to do anything as a response to the disaster and there is no credible evidence as to how so many projects have been cleared without any environment clearance reports being publicly available to be studied by independent and international experts.  At the same time, a little less famous among the famed CAG reports (highlighting the biggest scams in India’s history) that came a few years ago lambasted the ill-preparedness of the state for preventing any such major disaster and complete lack of basic infrastructure to deal with the aftermath. There is absolutely no doubt that Uttarakhand has become a major cash cow for the politician-business-bureaucrat nexus to exploit the natural wealth of the state and we, as informed citizens, are equally responsible.

So, while I continue to drown into the world of Himalyan ecology and trying to ascertain when and where will the environmental time bomb explode on our land, I still dream of that elusive utopia that the above ranks be happily traded with SRT's lowest scores in the last few series when he steps for the last time (my heart skips a beat even thinking of the possibility). 

(This is the first part of a series of articles to follow and the answer to 'What can we Do ...' asked in the early paragraphs of this piece and a lot more will be explored in the future parts)

(Thanks to Surbhit for his thought provoking views that made me work on this issue)

Monday, May 13, 2013

400 - Records Keep Tumbling


While there is no doubt that that the very universe can be described in the language of numbers, I’ve always had a love and hate relationship with them all my life. I got 19 out of 100 in one of my school term exams in mathematics in class 12 (not in boards surely) and well, I considered it one of the lows of my life. As usual, I was stuck in one of the vicious cycles of my life. Speaking of cycles and numbers, I should probably stop basking in the glory of my school report card and come to the point. I come across a lot of written and spoken stuff about cycles and numbers in the kind of stuff I read. And one of them that’s hogging the lime light lately is 400.

I can’t remember anything about 400 over which any love was won or lost in my life except that its the highest individual test score in cricket made by a man whom I would rate higher than Tendulkar anyday in my life (best part - he isn’t an Aussie). Of course, when I tried to stir my head in the few moments of sobriety I am lucky to get, the only thing that kept coming to my mind was the film 400. Two of my brothers, (both sane blokes considering their anti-Dhoni rant), have somehow developed an enigmatic affection for that piece of cultural graffiti I somehow find blasphemous of calling a motion picture (barring some scenes which considering the family audience of my blog, cannot explicitly describe here). So, where was I? Yeah, so while I was wondering why in the world did Butler chose just 400 Hollywood extras to fight an enemy comprising of all possible gothic characters ever conceived, my fading eyesight captured a poster on the net saying the film happens to be titled 300. I wonder if the original Spartans were 400 but 100 were mistakenly pushed into the well during the “This is Sparta!” frenzy (no pun intended). Anyways, pardon my mumbo jumbo (hangover hasn’t subsided I guess) for I am supposed to talk about why 400 has become important.

Well, its actually the 43rd self number in the list of base 10 numbers. Self numbers, also called Devlali numbers, are those integers, in a particular base (base means binary, decimal etc.) which cannot be obtained by any other integer added to the sum of that other integer’s digits (21 is not a self number as another integer 15 when added to the sum of its digits, 15+1+5 = 21). How many of knew by the way that self numbers were first described by the Indian mathematician D R Kaprekar in 1949 and he lived and taught in the town of Devlali in Maharashtra till the end of his life. Its all on Wikipedia so I should better stop copying and come to the point.

Hey all, I must humbly request you to kindly forgive my digressions (I just recalled my latest attempt to be on a high cost me 400). I know its a bad request. Speaking of bad requests, I occasionally encounter them when I try to open certain kind of websites which are best not mentioned. Anyways, how many of you know or remember that the HTTP Status 400: Bad Request code you must have seen on your computer screens. Who knows, considering the rape cases which crossed 400 last year in many major cities in India, tries for certain kind of online ‘education’ that ‘juveniles’ like me are in dire need of, may soon be permanently termed Bad Request in our country. I know I’ll rot in hell because I just realised its already daytime and I have already bored you all to death by writing over 600 words of unadulterated adultery about 400.

Actually, The Mauna Loa Observatory on the island state of Hawaii, USA recently recorded something that has not happened in all of human history. Actually, it hasn’t happened in the last 3 million years. Because for the first time in 3 million years, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere hit 400 parts per million on an average over an entire day just a few days ago. So, what’s the big deal? Well, referring to one of my previous posts titled A BurningApocalypse for Earth?, the earth is well on its way to flush out large parts of humanity within the next hundred years if our love affair with carbon emitting fossil fuels doesn't end soon. By the way, the last time our planet saw such CO2 concentrations, scientists estimate the oceans were just a ‘mere’ 35-65 feet higher. And what most scientists from some of the world’s best research labs and universities are saying is that it could happen again and the signs will become visible in the next few years.

Anyways, if the seas will rise, we (by we, I mean the middle income and upper classes as I doubt  my blog is read by people belonging to lower middle income or the lower income bracket) can always move away from the seas inland and the only people affected will be the poverty stricken living close to sea level. If more and more floods and droughts occur, we can always relax as we mostly live in cities which are rarely directly affected by floods (till now) and if we can afford colas, we can definitely afford packaged water whose rising costs in case of such climatic effects will not affect our household budgets much.

And of course, we don’t care that our food chains will be severely hampered and food prices may rise by more than 30% permanently above the normalised price rise in the next 20 years exacerbating hunger and malnourishment among the already 1 billion plus hungry on the planet. And of course, most of us probably don’t even know that in the Indian subcontinent and in sub Saharan Africa, diseases occurring due to poor water availability and pathetic water quality among the poor is among the top 3 killers. I’ll end my monologue hoping against hope that we can begin shifting to electric cars, energy efficient lighting, ACs and refrigerators and using public transport to the maximum extent possible.  


As I’m wide awake now, I hope to be granted clemency for yet another round of end-of-the-world prophecies to end this piece but I had to harp upon other aspects of 400 because that was the only way I saw to hold some of yours’ attention to read till the end. By the way, for a start, I have got a CNG kit installed in my car for Rs. 24000 as it emits nearly 40% less greenhouse gases compared to a gasoline or diesel car and costs Rs. 2 per km less than diesel and Rs. 3.5 per km less than petrol. Thus, for anyone wanting to drive his car for atleast 10000 km (which more than 99% people do), an electric car is best for city traffic and for long distance travel, CNG should be next in priority list.


(And this time, the inspiration to write something new came from my friend Sakshi)

Friday, February 8, 2013

Eat, Drink, Travel, Work, Sleep – But Efficiently

Image Courtesy of  Sujin Jetkasettakorn / www.freedigitalphotos.net

My previous post took pot shots at another round of failed climate change negotiations, this time in Doha, Qatar against the backdrop of bombarding information on ever increasing effects of climate change augmented by human induced global warming. If the status quo is maintained, there’s no doubt that almost one fifth of the planet’s population would face horrors akin to a war time scenario in the second half of this century mostly in underdeveloped and developing countries.

But, while just as science and technology was behind plaguing the planet, so it can purge it. As I mentioned in my last post, solutions are already there. In labs, in patents, and in thousands of research papers and reports. But rarely did policymakers and corporations bothered to even remember that forget using them. But, being the perennial optimist, I believe change may just be round the corner. While there is no doubt that in the long term, a shift to cleaner energy resources is the only answer. But, while the political will and corporate incentives are still luke warm for clean and green energy, there is a fuel which is in our hands and if used immediately, can give us enough time to set the stage for a large scale global renewable energy invasion to occur. This fuel is energy efficiency.


Energy Efficiency - The Alternative Fuel

Energy efficiency, sounding like a ubiquitous term in high school and freshman basic science text books, is one of the two or three killer apps when it comes to permanently mitigating climate change. A recent report titled World Energy Outlook 2012 by International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that if economically viable energy efficient technologies are applied across the globe from now on (beginning 2013), it will reduce the global primary energy requirement by half by 2035 as compared to a scenario if they are not applied. Oil demand will peak by 2020 and by 2035, it’ll be 13 million barrels per day (mb/d) lower, a reduction equal to total current oil production of Russia and Norway. And how will it affect global warming and carbon emissions?

As I mentioned in my previous post, we can’t afford beyond a 2°C rise in global average temperature for the planet by 2100 in order to avoid disastrous effects of climate change. This report says that existing power plants, factories and buildings etc. will already emit almost 4/5th of the emissions by 2035 required to raise earth’s average temperature by 2°C. If we continue ‘business as usual’, by 2017, the total number of power plants, factories, buildings etc. would be enough to emit all the carbon based gases which will raise Earth’s temperature by 2°C by 2100. However, if we immediately start applying currently available energy efficiency technologies across the globe, we will push the lock in period to 2022. It simply means that instead of 2017, we will have another 5 years by which time the earth will have enough plants, factories, buildings etc. to raise earth’s temperature by 2°C by 2100. Thus, instead of following ‘business as usual’ path of development (simply meaning the way we are going), if we start applying energy efficiency solutions that are realistically possible according to IEA, we have another 9 years by which time we must get a climate change treaty which curbs carbon emissions and massively increase contribution of renewables and other future clean energy resources in our daily lives.


How Efficient can we be?

Energy Efficiency’s report card till date sports an F grade all the way. From 1974-2008, $38 billion was spent on end use energy and efficiency innovation globally. Against this, $41billion was spent during the same time on nuclear fusion, supposedly the holy grail of infinite clean energy. Against this, just a ‘paltry’ $530 billion were spent on fossil fuel subsidies (now you know why you get diesel at less than Rs. 50/litre even today when the global market prices should make it Rs. 65/litre in India) and $88 billion on renewable energy subsidies in 2011 alone. Regrettably, more than 80% of the energy efficiency potential in buildings and more than 50% in industry remains untapped across the globe.

One of the biggest potentials and markets for future growth lie in energy efficiency improvements in supply chain infrastructure. If the supply chain infrastructure can be improved on three fronts – improving the fuel efficiency of all 3 forms of freight transport, achieving more efficient use of transportation by increasing load factors and reducing average shipping speeds and by using smart traffic management systems, substantial reductions in projected energy demand can be made. A study showed that for a scenario of $100/barrel of oil and for $250/barrel of oil (the second scenario being the most plausible in the decade beginning 2020), for $100/barrel, the above 3 improvements in supply chain infrastructure can result in a 38% reduction in energy in a 10 year time horizon while for $250/barrel, the same 3 can cause a 51% reduction over the same period.

A study by Mckinsey 2 years back stated that across the developing world, if energy efficiency solutions are implemented across all major industries beginning 2011, then by 2020, 25% less energy will be required as compared to the business as usual scenario. This means a total energy savings greater than the total energy consumption in China in 2009. In the 2 biggest carbon emitters on Earth, China and India (1st and 3rd ranked in global carbon emissions), application of energy efficiency to its full potential from 2011 onwards could have yielded energy savings of nearly 24% and 33% respectively by 2020 against a business as usual scenario (2 years have already passed and nothing much was done in India).    

For example, for the Indian state of Maharashtra, it has been proven through a study that as compared to the costs incurred on electricity loses due to in efficient water pumps to the states’ farmers providing free electricity (electricity for farming is free in India), the capital cost of installing more efficient pumps would be lower than the cost of generating that extra electricity which got wasted in the inefficient pumps. For a fact, Maharashtra loses sales tax worth Rs. 9 per kWh ($0.20/kWh) for each kWh of electricity not supplied to businesses which gets wasted in the inefficient pumps. Similarly, electricity loses due to technical inefficiency of the electricity grid can be reduced from 27% to 17% andwould result in savings of 69 TWh/yr and CO2 reduction of 55 Mt/yr.


We, the Consumers

But at the end of the day, the end users must not be left out. Its critical that the end consumers must be made aware of the choices that can be made with very little or no hassles and that can result in net savings as well as reduced harm to the environment. Some of the very basic choices that we as consumers in India (choices vary according to geography and culture and lifestyles) can easily make are:

·  Using Light Emitting Diode (LED) lighting for our homes and trashing all CFLs, tubes and incandescent bulbs. While many may feel CFLs is the answer, you must remember CFLs contain mercury which is an extremely toxic substance. And, LEDs cost less than 50% of CFLs and barely 15% of conventional lighting over an entire year. Also, LEDs life span is over 5 times that of CFLs and nearly 35 times that of our regular tubes and bulbs. Reduction in carbon emissions if using LEDs – just 10% of tubes and bulbs and just 45% of CFLs.

·      Use only BEE (Bureau of Energy Efficiency) STAR 5 rated ACs and refrigerators. Although they cost higher than 2 or 3 star rated appliances, over a 5 year period, the net savings due to lower electricity bills can be in excess of 30% as compared to overall costs of 2 star rated appliances.
  
·        As much as possible, use public transport and use bicycles or walk for travelling distances less than a kilometre. For prospective car buyers, an easy internet search can reveal the best reviewed and rated cars by users and experts for highest fuel efficiency. Since cars across the globe are a status symbol, even for those going for higher end cars, there are C & D segment cars available which have higher fuel efficiencies than their counterparts which can easily be found on the net. The most preferable should be LPG (known as CNG in India) based engines especially in Indian metros as their overall costs over a 4 year period is 20-25% less as compared to a diesel car considering an average distance of 12,000 km travelled for a small to mid-sized car.

·     Above all, the CO2 emissions are negligible as compared to diesel or petrol. The 2nd preference must be a diesel based car if and only if you are willing to drive it atleast 55,000 km considering a 10-12,000 km per year travel. But if you planning to sell your car for anything less than 45,000 km, and mostly travel in cities, petrol will be overall cheaper considering whole life cycle costs since diesel cars, on an average, are Rs.100,000 costlier than petrol ones.  And of course, for the same distance travelled, a same sized diesel car emits lesser CO2 emissions than a petrol one. 

·        Water heaters and electric room heaters are available readily in the Indian market that consume less than 50% energy than the conventional units while providing the same amount of heating which can add another 5% to your saved costs in terms of total spending on energy especially in winters in northern and central India


In essence, energy efficiency might just be the steroids needed for combating global warming and climate change by the time renewable and clean energy coupled with technologies like carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) take over as the lead protagonists.